Key leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its mentor Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh seem to have come to the conclusion that it is time to press for an early general election. This represents a dramatic change from the BJP’s perceived interest in prioritising resolution of its internal leadership squabbles before clearing the decks for advancing the election date, despite the bulk of the party’s parliamentarians loath to cut short their five-year term.

Unless there is a backlash from the BJP’s MPs, the party leadership is insisting on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s resignation on the Comptroller and Auditor General’s report on the allotment of coal blocks and blocking parliamentary proceedings for days on end. Democratic norms have thus been set aside for the new power play in the belief that “Coalgate”, as it has been dubbed, is as good an issue they will get in a long time to campaign in the lead-up to the election.
Like its mentor RSS, the second-rung leaders of the party seem to have reconciled themselves to the prevailing wisdom that Narendra Modi offers the best chance for the party to try to win the general election, despite his obvious disadvantages. In any case, the BJP has not refrained from exploiting the Assam tragedy for its own narrow ends. In fact, the party plans to be unapologetic about promoting its Hindutva agenda in campaigning to return to power at the Centre after suffering two heartbreaks in preceding general elections.
The Congress Party has, of course, scored a number of own goals. Dr Manmohan Singh finally broke his silence before keeping his commitment to attend the nonalignment summit in Tehran. But both in Parliament and later at the Congress Parliamentary Party meeting, it was the combative party president, Sonia Gandhi, who tried to stiffen the spines of her party colleagues in being offensive, rather than defensive, in taking on the BJP detractors. In any case, the merits of the issue — Coalgate — have taken a back seat to the political demands of the crisis the BJP has sedulously calculated.
The question is that the BJP is desperate to return to power at the Centre and is grasping at any help it can get from its National Democratic Alliance allies — and the Congress — to pursue its objective. The irony is that L.K. Advani has already hinted at the shape of things to come by suggesting that the next Prime Minister would come from neither the Congress nor the BJP. The Congress, to be sure, has much to answer for. Much of the problem lies in the party’s compulsions, illustrated by the pattern of leaders since Independence.
Dr Manmohan Singh was tapped by Ms Sonia Gandhi after the famous 2004 election because it became politically difficult for her to accept the top post, given the manner in which the BJP, particularly Sushma Swaraj, rounded on her accident of foreign birth. To keep the family dynasty alive, Dr Singh was considered a safe pair of hands to hand over power to the heir, Rahul Gandhi, when the time came. The young Mr Gandhi took inordinately long to complete his apprenticeship to contest the last general election, which returned the Congress with a larger, though not absolute, majority. And the two-headed government, with power decisively lying with the Congress president rather than the Prime Minister, has failed to work in United Progressive Alliance 2.
Obviously, the scheduled 2014 election is the last chance Mr Gandhi will have to be promoted as the future prime ministerial candidate, despite his disastrous showing in spearheading his party’s campaign in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. He has not struck observers as an astute politician, but the logic of dynasty rule requires that he do his duty by following the path trodden by Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi.
Congressmen are as attached to the hierarchy as the family itself because the Congress, unlike the BJP or the communist parties, is not a cadre-based party and must rely on the charisma of a very distinguished family to win elections.
The problem, of course, is that Mr Gandhi has not shown the spark of leadership or that indefinable ability to strike rapport with the people to lead his willing flock. Indeed, the clamour for bringing in his sister Priyanka into the political field, despite her obligations in bringing up her two children, never seems to die down because many Congressmen have found the Nehru-Gandhi spark in her, rather than her brother.
The BJP’s tactic in asking for the Prime Minister’s head is, in some respects, a high-risk move because it will come to haunt it. In blatantly suggesting that parliamentary democracy in the shape of Parliament can wait until it completes its power play, the party is implying that it holds the democratic form of government in contempt when it suits its purposes. And by espousing the Hindutva plan in Assam, still tortured by inter-ethnic clashes, it is placing its own perceived interests above those of the nation and the democratic form of government.
Where does India go from here? Unless the BJP changes course in its single-minded attempt to come to power at the Centre, the political stalemate can only lead to an early general election. The party’s theme of painting the Congress-led UPA as the scams-tainted government will sway sections of voters while its own record in Karnataka, the first BJP government in southern India, is full of holes. But the fine print of Coalgate, that at least two BJP chief ministers pleaded against auctioning coal blocks, will be missed by most voters.
Perhaps the most intriguing tell-tale sign of the BJP’s eagerness to unsheathe the sword of Hindutva is Mr Advani’s presence with Mr Modi at a ceremony in Gujarat lauding the effectiveness of the game of chess in mind-building and nationalism. There are those who believe that Mr Advani’s quest for securing the highest political office remains dormant even as others suggest that he has finally made peace with having Mr Modi as the aspirant Prime Minister.