India needs a 360° terror appraisal

The highly surcharged political drama around Anna Hazare’s fast at the Ramlila Maidan in Delhi came to an end on August 28, though with what substantial results is yet to be seen. But the country needs to remember that on the midnight of 19/20 August, even as Delhi was focused on the hectic political negotiations between Team Anna and the government, young Lt. Navdeep Singh was killed and two of his soldiers injured near Bagtor village in the Gurez region of Kashmir when they intercepted a group of heavily armed militants attempting to cross the Kishenganga river in a rubber dinghy, killing 12 of them in the process.

This was reportedly the eighth such attempt in the region. Gurez in north Kashmir is very far from Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan, but given Mr Hazare’s tremendous pride in his personal background as a soldier, he would have been proud of his brave comrades.
Throughout the summer this year there have been persistent reports in the media about major attempts by Pakistan to infiltrate into Kashmir, both across the Line of Control as well as Jammu’s international border.
Tribal and other proxies created for this purpose (including some within India itself, like Simi and the Indian Mujahideen) are strategic assets under the direct control of the Pakistan military, acting through well established front organisations like the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
It is clear that notwithstanding the numerous peace conferences at various levels between the two countries, Pakistan’s exploitation of covert war as an instrument of policy against India will always remain a constant in India-Pakistan equations.
In this context, Al Qaeda and its emerging connections in Yemen have become very relevant for India.
Yemen’s predominantly tribal culture and harsh inaccessible terrain create an inherent insularity which, in many ways, makes the country an ideal sanctuary for terrorists. Yemen has, in fact, reportedly become the principal new destination for Pashtun and Punjabi Taliban fleeing intensifying attacks by American drones.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has gradually established itself here through a web of alliances with the local tribes, including some by intermarriages, particularly in the inaccessible mountains of the Shabwa province, and has now become a strong presence within the country.
There is every likelihood that Pakistan’s ISI has established contacts with the AQAP, though the organisation has been targeted by Saudi and Yemeni intelligence and military who consider Al Qaeda a threat to the ruling establishments.
Yemen was in the news because of reports that the AQAP was attempting to procure large quantities of castor beans for manufacturing ricin powder, an extremely lethal poison; it’s swiftly fatal if inhaled in even the most minute doses. These were then to be packed into small explosive dispenser packages and smuggled into the US and Europe, and exploded in crowded places like shopping malls, aircraft or subway stations. It would be a dirty chemical bomb from ingredients freely available in the open market, comparatively cheaper and much more accessible than even the smallest nuclear equivalent. Of course, there is much scepticism about the very feasibility of developing such a project in the primitive environments of Yemen, which is where the significance of a possible Pakistani connection with the AQAP comes in.
Consider this. Pakistan has already given a Dr A.Q. Khan to the illegal nuclear market.
Given the jihadi influence within the Pakistani scientific community, it is not at all impossible that another similar figure may emerge in that country in the illegal bio-chemical field as well.
The AQAP has demonstrated the capability to devise imaginative and ingenuous plans to carry out attacks in the heartlands of the US and western Europe, and some were even put into operation, but detected almost at the last minute.
In the past, numerous jihadi attacks have originated from Yemen, including suicide bombing of the US Navy warship USS Cole in Aden harbour in 2010, the attack on the French tanker Limburg, the failed attack on another US Navy warship The Sullivans in 2002, besides the attempted assassination of the Saudi anti-terrorist chief Prince Mohammad bin Nayef.
There was also the more bizarre case of an African passenger of Yemeni origin with plastic explosives sewn into his underwear who boarded an American commercial flight flying from Amsterdam and Detroit but failed to
set off the explosive when over American airspace.
But fanciful or not, the US for one is certainly taking seriously the capabilities of the AQAP as a potential threat. American military aid and intelligence activities in Yemen, including strikes by American aircraft and drones, have been ramped up, and there are reports that a new American airbase for this purpose is under construction in a yet unspecified country in West Asia.
Threats to India’s national security can build up in any quarter, from any region of the world. India should have no doubts that it is very much on the AQAP’s target list, through local proxies like the LeT in Pakistan, including possible “ricin bomb” operations. So even as Mr Hazare wrestles with the threat of corruption to ensure good governance, India must take due note of other threats as well and exercise the requisite caution.

Gen. Shankar Roychowdhury is a former Chief of Army Staff and a former member of Parliament