The Kiran Kumar Reddy government in Andhra Pradesh is perched comfortably even after 26 Congress MLAs have put in their papers.
The government will worry if more Congress resignations follow in the days to come. The YSR Congress president and Kadapa MP Y.S. Jaganmohan
Reddy is of course determined to destabilise the Congress and has been contacting MLAs, bringing pressure on them to resign.
Another pertinent issue is the acceptance of the Congress MLAs’ resignations by the Speaker. Earlier, he had rejected the en masse resignation of over 100 MLAs on the Telangana question.
The Kiran Reddy government continues to enjoy the support of 149 MLAs, while the majority mark is 133. Although this has not been publicly announced, it is expected that seven MIM MLAs will rescue the ruling party in the event of a crisis.
The general mood in the state, as in the rest of the country, is against political corruption. With CBI investigations into the assets of Mr Jagan Reddy under judicial instruction, many are watching how the story unfolds, although it is evident that the YSR Congress leader has support in Coastal Andhra and the Rayalaseema region.
Also most MLAs do not want to test their chances in byelection when more than half the life of the present Assembly remains. This too makes them wary about resignations.
For now, Congress MLAs who resign and manage to get re-elected on the YSR Congress ticket in byelections will have to sit in the Opposition. They will face the ire of the Kiran Kumar Reddy government, and perhaps discrimination in allotment of funds and projects for their constituencies.
Yet another major advantage for the ruling party is that the main Opposition Telugu Desam Party is not prepared to face mid-term polls in the near future due to its ambiguous stand on Telangana.
TDP is expected to try to scuttle the attempts of the YSR Congress to take advantage by tacitly preventing the government from falling. The Kiran Reddy government will be in trouble only if 50 more Congress MLAs side with Mr Jagan Reddy and resign. The chances of this appear slim for now.