The recent political developments in Karnataka underline a feature and a possibility. These are likely to negatively impact the BJP’s hold on the state.
Following the ejection of the B.S. Yeddyurappa government, the election of BSY’s choice D.V. Sadananda Gowda by the BJP Legislature Party as the chief minister-designate on Wednesday suggests that the BJP’s national leadership had little say in the affairs of the state unit.
For the most part, the three ranking emissaries from on high were shown to be mere spectators as BSY cocked a snook at them and had his way.
This leaves the impression of a bedraggled party that could well be adrift if the wider Hinduva political system is unable to calm it. This is the principal feature to emerge from the recent happenings.
In particular, the authority of BJP national president Nitin Gadkari and his ability to handle sensitive issues arising in the states has once again been called into question.
Since the man from Nagpur took charge at the behest of the RSS and for no other reason, state BJP stalwarts in Rajasthan (Vasundhara Raje), Uttarakhand (B.C. Khanduri) and Maharashtra (Gopinath Munde) have pointed up the fragility of Mr Gadkari’s leadership.
Can he now keep the Karnataka unit intact? The question is being raised at every informal political discussion in the capital. All the states in question are significant for the BJP.
Karnataka BJP MPs were asking here on Wednesday if Mr Gowda would be able to command the support of the MLAs of the factions that he defeated in the leadership contest since he was propped up by Mr Yeddyurappa.
It is apprehension on this score which raises the possibility of an internal BJP rupture which could have an external fallout.
The election of Mr Gowda was through a hard fought secret ballot, laying bare the Karnataka BJP’s inner schisms. In the circumstances, it would not be surprising if governor H.R. Bhardwaj requires Mr Gowda to prove his majority on the floor of the Assembly.
After all, it is his job to see that the new dispensation can provide the state a stable government.
It is not inconceivable that the fear of losing a government will put all BJP MLAs — regardless of factions — on alert, and make them line up behind Mr Gowda who stymied the overweening ambitions of some of them. But the proposition is yet to be put to the test.
The big setback for the BJP is that its first government in South India fell within three years, with the chief minister being disgraced on corruption charges.
The next unhappy news for the party is that its key state leaders look to be on different wavelengths.