The Americans claim they were led to the Osama bin Laden compound in Abbottabad through painstaking work by homing in on a “courier” of the late Al Qaeda chief. A Saudi Arab newspaper has suggested that Bin Laden was betrayed by Ayman al-Zawahiri, his Egyptian number two. In India, the security establishment is pursuing an entirely different approach. Well-placed sources here say the Al Qaeda leader was, in all likelihood, done in by a Pakistani “Vibhishan”.
The courier theory of the US establishment, according to them, is too pat, too “simplistic”. A courier worth his salt at that level would not allow himself to be secretly followed all the way to the secret mansion. The idea stretches credulity.
In this reading, the high-level Pakistanis who can be brought under the scanner include former Army Chief and President, Pervez Musharraf (who resides in London these days), the current Army Chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, and the current ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha. Each can have a motive, and each was in a position to know Bin Laden’s whereabouts, assuming ISI was complicit.
A fourth possibility is also under discussion. For financial lure, a senior ISI or Army functionary in a sensitive position-high enough to know about the Al Qaeda chief but not top enough to be in the news could have quietly leaked the secret. The Americans had placed a bounty of $50million on Bin Laden’s head.
General Musharraf’s underlying desire is to return home to play a political role and be president again. Tipping off the Americans and earning their lasting goodwill cannot hurt his cause, say sources.
General Kayani’s possible motives are seen as two-fold. One, a moderniser’s desire to do good by his country and be rid of a dangerous customer with a view to bringing about positive change in the long run.
Two- and the more likely incentive — to please the Americans enough to have them on board in diminishing, and eventually eliminating, a role for India in the future Afghanistan, which Islamabad regards as Pakistan’s backyard by right. Lt. Gen. Pasha is under consideration as he might hope to raise his ambition to reaching the top slot in the Army by being in the good books of the US. It is, of course, appreciated here that that might not be enough.
Sources are emphatic that there is no knowing in this game, and the truth will probably never be out in the foreseeable future.