Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee’s announcement to increase the allocation under MPLADS from `2 crores to `5 crores in one go is seen as a move to ensure stability at the Centre. This is because the UPA managers see a possible realignment of political parties after the Assembly elections in five states in the next couple of months and before the President of India’s election next year.
The MPLADS is a creation of the minority government of the late P.V. Narasimha Rao which had acquired the majority through defections and splits in the Opposition parties during 1992 to 1996. Incidentally, MPs got a quota in the telephone and the LPG connections in the Rao regime.
The MPLAD scheme had begun with the allocation of `1 crore per year and later an equal amount was added in it by a successive government despite the fact that top leaders in the government and the Opposition, including Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Mr L.K. Advani, were against it. Even former Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee was not in its favour.
Then what was the compulsion to increase the allocation under the MPLADs by `3 crores without a demand or discussion within major political parties? The objective appears to be to keep the MPs in good humour and mount pressure on their political boss not to take an extreme step which could lead to an early Lok Sabha election.
Regional leaders in the UPA, NDA and outside the two fronts are on a sticky wicket for different reasons and thus not in a position to influence the Centre.
For example, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP have no option but to back the Manmohan Singh government from outside “unconditionally” since 2004.
They might be fighting against the Congress in Uttar Pradesh and other states, but are “ideological” ally in New Delhi.
Mr Mukherjee, the key trobleshooter and the strategist of the Congress Party in UPA-1 and 2, must have realised that the next two years could witness a spell of political uncertainty for different factors.
A DMK defeat in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections might not compel it to back the UPA for the remaining period. Regional parties across the country will certainly try to weaken the Congress.
Next year is seen as a mini-general election with Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand (all ruled by non-Congress parties) and Goa and Manipur going to the polls between February and December. In between, the elections of President of India and vice-president would be held.
The Congress is in no position to win the presidential and vice-presidential elections, expected in July and August 2012, on its own. Mr Mukherjee has been keeping the main Opposition BJP in good humour despite the stalemate on the constitution of a JPC on the 2G scam.