Tyranny and reform

Even as internal and international pressure mounts on Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, his country continues to implode. Pro-democracy protests and the government’s retaliation, which began on February 15, have already left hundreds dead and thousands wounded.

Col. Gaddafi has threatened his people with death and destruction if they continue to fight for freedom. This, in effect, is a desperate declaration of war on the protesters who have managed to already take five cities. With Col. Gaddafi and his son Seif ul-Islam in no mood to negotiate with their own countrymen, there is no solution in sight for the nations whose citizens are caught in the crossfire. A million Egyptians work in Libya and there are over 30,000 Chinese and 18,000 Indians. The panic is visible as governments take urgent steps to evacuate their citizens. The Libyan government’s decision to give landing clearance to two Air India planes per day from February 26 for evacuation of Indian nationals is good news.
As growing tensions in Libya fuel concerns about the instability in oil-producing Arab states, the price of crude oil has escalated in the last few days. There is now growing acknowledgement that the current crisis may be beyond the control of absolute regimes in West Asia. But will the international community restrict itself to statements from the Security Council, or will we see action to prevent genocide?
I wonder how many have to perish before the global community declares war on Col. Gaddafi and his hired mercenaries. US secretary of state Hillary Clinton is scheduled to travel to Geneva next week to address a meeting of the UN Human Rights Council and mobilise the international community against the Gaddafi regime, which is using lethal force against its own people.
Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt. Once it falls to the will of the people, other autocratic regimes are sure to topple, sooner rather than later.
Libya may well be the flashpoint that can increase the momentum of the movement towards democracy in other West Asian and North Africa countries. The freedom revolution in West Asia and North Africa is already acquiring a moral force of its own and already there are protests in Algeria, Jordan and Morocco.
Clearly, the period of “excesses” in governance is over. But the transition from one system to another will be painful and is likely to upset political alignments in West Asia and North Africa that have existed for decades.
Bahrain is already under pressure to reform as protesters take to the streets. There is growing pressure on the Sunni Muslim ruling family to initiate meaningful talks with the Shia-led Opposition. Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa, the crown prince and heir to the throne, has been asked by his father, King Hamad, to hold a dialogue with the Opposition. After the armed forces opened fire on demonstrators in Bahrain, the Opposition leaders have refused to negotiate with royal family until all the tanks return to their stations.
As oil-rich Saudi Arabia warily watches the unrest spreading around West Asia, King Abdullah has ordered that billions of dollars be poured into a development fund that will help Saudis buy homes, get married and start businesses. This is a knee-jerk precautionary step that and may only end up highlighting years of neglect.

FINANCE MINISTER Pranab Mukherjee will present the Union Budget tomorrow but I think the events in North Africa and West Asia and the escalating price of oil are bound to upset the projections experts have made on the economic front. We may also face additional pressure on food prices.
The US and the Western world will do everything possible to stabilise the situation as the global economy is still fragile. But countries like Italy, which have had traditional links with Libya, will show immediate signs of economic stress and this is bound to affect the overall sentiment across the globe.
I am not surprised that the Sensex plunged 546 points to 17,632.41 as investors dumped stocks on concerns over shooting oil prices. In such situations public confidence in governments is very low. It is, therefore, essential that our Prime Minister and his economic team are seen and heard much more.
We do not need a financial genius to predict the pressure we will face on our fiscal and current account deficit if oil prices escalate from the current level. The year 2011 is going to be a very difficult one.
We have several challenges on the domestic scene. Look at the tragedy in Gujarat, where 63 people accused in the 2002 Sabarmati Express fire have been found innocent after they spent nine years in jail. Only 31 have been found guilty of murder. This is a tragedy beyond words. I sincerely hope that Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi will give them immediate compensation and punish all those who fabricated cases.
The system can be reformed only after the conscience of the nation awakens.

THE GLOOM and doom disappears instantly as we turn to the ongoing Cricket World Cup. The first serious match, between South Africa and the West Indies, was a good one. South Africa is a very well-balanced team and has a record of playing well consistently.
We play England today in Bengaluru, where there was a mini riot as only 7,000 tickets were available out of a total of 38,000. This is likely to be the pattern throughout the tournament. England won the last game against Holland, who did rather well. Holland is an underdog. Even in defeat the team looked like potential winners capable of upsetting a team or two in the future.
The tournament so far has been good but we need a decisive win today. A big innings is due from Sachin Tendulkar. Even Yuvraj Singh and Yusuf Pathan need a good innings each. I sincerely hope that Ashish Nehra is fit. Sreesanth is a luxury we cannot afford in a tight match. India, South Africa and Sri Lanka are the top contenders. The West Indies look rather strong and, on their day, can beat anyone. I would place them ahead of England in the first four teams for the Cup.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister