A battle for survival

West Asia is in turmoil. It is a tragedy beyond words as we witness events on the streets of Cairo. There are signs of increased violence and bloodshed as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak fights for his survival after ruling for 30 years.

Mr Mubarak is no amateur in the battle for survival and has dealt with five US Presidents. I don’t think he is worried about the speeches given by US President Barack Obama and his administration. The bottomline is that the US needs his muscle for its long-term interests in Israel. One can witness the anarchy in Egypt as 80 million people are subject to violence and death to preserve President Mubarak and his dynasty. The situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq is chaotic as there are regular suicide attacks but are we going to see a similar situation in Egypt?
Times have changed as the Internet, with various social networking sites, has the ability to reach out to millions within a few seconds. We have seen this in Tunisia and Egypt. As people become conscious of their rights and demand greater accountability in governance, hopefully we will see the effect of this in Yemen, Jordan and Saudi Arabia too. We can only hope and pray that there is a peaceful transition of power. The US has to match its rhetoric with ground support for the aspirations of the people. Cairo is already raging and protests in Jordan and Yemen are intensifying. All of these countries are strong US allies and get massive aid.
Besides the issue of freedom, there is discontent on dynastic succession, corruption and food inflation and this crisis is getting bigger by the hour. Can Mr Obama and the Western world be silent spectators to these developments? Can the Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations maintain silence and wait and watch for the situation to deteriorate? We have had a late start in the media on events in Egypt and this is not unexpected as the relations between our countries cooled off when President Anwar Sadat took over the reins of Egypt.
Little has changed after his assassination when Mr Mubarak took charge. One can only look back at the events that took place in 1950s. One can’t ignore the bond between President Nasser and Pandit Jawarharlal Nehru and their “special” friendship which developed after their common struggle for freedom from colonial rule. The Suez Canal was of great strategic value and Nasser had to fight a pitched battle from many Western powers who controlled the country directly or through puppet regimes. Pandit Nehru gave more than moral support to Nasser and later when India had recovered Goa from Portugal — which threatened the use of force —Nasser proved to be more than a friend as access to the Suez Canal was denied.
One needs to go back and trace events over the last 100 years to study the turmoil Egypt has gone through. A study of the decline and the breakdown of the mighty Ottomon Empire and the formation of several states within the area will help in understanding the current crisis. It will prove that the current crisis will not remain confined to Egypt alone. It will intensify in Yemen where Mr Mubarak, his son and family are in retreat, and in Jordan where the king is clearly under siege. The circumstances surrounding the Ottoman Empire’s fall closely paralleled those surrounding the decline of the Roman Empire. In the case of the Ottomans, the introduction of increased cultural rights, civil liberties and a parliamentary system during the Tanzimat (reorganisation) proved too late to reverse the nationalistic and secessionist trends that had already been set in motion since the early 19th century.
Events in Egypt have spurred many a discussion on whether India is likely to go the same way. The answer is clearly in negative for the simple reason that India is a vibrant democracy and the electorate rules the ballot box. We are not a “banana republic” but our pace of reforms is slow. We can indulge in blame-games but I am optimistic. For example, the United Progressive Alliance has enforced the Right to Information Act and armed NGOs and ordinary citizens. Sadly lack of reforms in all three sectors of governance are resulting in the government itself being evasive on crucial issues.
This is inevitable as we do not have a perfect system of governance and we must give time and avoid confrontation. We have new emerging leaders in every field — business, medicine, education, science media, arts etc. Can the political system in all three wings of governance lag in this process?
We need meritocracy to emerge and in this direction I find little wrong in the thought process initiated by Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi. The thinking is no different in the leaders of the BJP or other regional parties. Many are in the minority at the moment but I do not think that the process of change can be delayed any longer.
We can take a cue from the events in West Asia where durable regimes and absolute rulers are being brought down with the help of technology. Change in a democracy should not come in a drastic manner but can anyone predict the pace of change in a world which has few secrets? Change is the only constant thing in life.

Arun Nehru is a former Union minister