It’s been over three decades that the reds have been ruling West Bengal. In any democracy, such a long stint in power for any political outfit is unprecedented. Since 1977, West Bengal has been a Marxist citadel. Challenging the red dragon on its own turf is Trinamul Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee. If things go as predicted by
many, the Marxists’ history would again be re-written in 2011. Political essays and calculations are going to be rewritten in 2011. If the reds are tottering in Bengal, the DMK, led by the Karunanidhi clan, is buried under corruption charges. At this juncture, if the DMK wins, it will be the first time in over two decades in Tamil Nadu that a party has managed to retain power. But will 2010 be the fatal year for the ruling DMK? One has to wait and see.
2011 is the year of elections — West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry will go to polls.
For the first time, Parliament simply did not function. The Opposition put up a united front. And the Congress stuck to its stance. The government refused to concede the Opposition’s demand to set up a JPC into the 2G scam. The result was a Parliament logjam.
If 2011 is going to be election year, 2010 was the year of scams — the Commonwealth Games scam, the Adarsh Housing Society scam, the 2G scam, and then the Radia tapes brought down media icons. While some of these media icons, whose credibility was questioned, beat a silent retreat, some decided to brazen it out.
Corruption is all set to be the main election plank of the Opposition during the forthcoming polls in all the five states. The AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, which has already sent feelers to the Congress for an alliance for the forthcoming elections, has made the 2G scam its main stick against the DMK. And with raids being carried out by investigative agencies on former DMK telecom minister A. Raja, things are not looking up for the DMK. The party is rattled. Questions are being raised about the DMK-Congress alliance. Suddenly people are asking why AICC general secretary Rahul Gandhi met state chief minister and DMK supremo M. Karunanidhi every time he visited Tamil Nadu. Did two AIADMK leaders, close associates of party supremo Jayalalithaa, parley with Congress president Sonia Gandhi and son Rahul? If so, why? Will the Congress go it alone in Tamil Nadu?
In Assam, however, despite the uncertainties in Tamil Nadu, it seems to be a clear run for the Congress. Mr Tarun Gogoi, an Ahom chief minister, has a clean image and the Opposition, particularly the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and BJP, are on weaker ground — electorally. Sources disclosed that the AGP, a former BJP ally, is asking for “total financial support” for striking an alliance with the saffron camp yet again. And, so far, the BJP has refused.
However, Mr Varun Gandhi, the BJP’s election in-charge for Assam, has not merely put on a moderate tone, he is avoiding targeting the Congress or the chief minister. He is talking about poverty and development, and then tacitly raising the nagging issue of infiltration of migrants into the state. Even though Varun claims to be confident of a good show in Assam, a majority section in the party feels the Congress has an upper hand in the state.
Like Bengal, it might just be the time for change in Kerala. Ridden by factionalism and hit by corruption charges, the LDF, led by the CPI(M), could be on its way out. Kerala witnesses a change in government every five years; 2011 could be the year of the Congress-led UDF’s return to power. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat is being held responsible for the mess both in Bengal and Kerala. And if things go badly for the Marxists, 2011 could also see the exit of Mr Karat. Even in Puducherry, the Congress seem to have an edge.
There are also whispers of mid-term poll in the corridors of power. With corruption at the helm of national affairs, threats of another Parliament logjam during the Budget Session could just blow the bugle for a snap poll. If the rumours are to be believed, a section of top leaders in the Congress is seriously considering the option.
Despite corruption charges and a sullied image, the Congress, which has 207 MPs at this juncture, could end up with nearly 165 berths. “Even then we should get around 50 seats more than the BJP,” they said. The Congress leaders apprehend that trouble for the party could come mainly from states like Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, UP and Rajasthan.
In Andhra, which sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha, former Congress leader and son of late chief minister Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy, is rapidly emerging as a major threat to the party. “His political growth in Andhra Pradesh could possibly hit the party hard. The Congress’ base is apparently shrinking after the death of YSR and the Telangana issue has become an albatross for the Congress. “Let’s face it. We are losing Andhra, which has given us 33 MPs,” a party functionary said.
West Bengal, again with 42 Lok Sabha berths, could turn into a problem area for the Congress if it waits for elections in 2014. The Congress, riding on the Mamata wave, could trounce the Marxists in the 2011 Assembly elections. “But Mamata is a credit card you might not be able to encash in the long run,” the functionary observed. The Congress is not certain of Mamata’s administrative abilities. A mid-term poll during the end of 2011 could benefit the Congress as Mamata will have no time to blot her copybook. There are some in the Congress who are also apprehensive of Mr Narendra Modi returning to power in the 2012 Gujarat Assembly polls. His third return could change the dynamics of Gujarat as well as the country, some political pundits believe.
And then the battle royale — Uttar Pradesh. With 80 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress has 20 MPs from the state and the “Rahul magic” is still working. The BJP, with 10 MPs, is in complete disarray, the Samajwadis have run out of steam and the Mayawati-led BSP could be hit by anti-incumbency. The Congress feels its possible losses in Delhi and Rajasthan could be made up in Orissa and Punjab. The year 2011 might just witness the end of the red dragon. And, if rumours are to be believed, a mid-term poll with a new face leading the UPA.