Cuban-American exiles in Florida may be eagerly awaiting the death of Fidel Castro, but US diplomats in havana don't expect the revolutionary icon's passing to generate any immediate unrest on the communist-run island, or even an upsurge in Cubans seeking to leave, according to a newly released diplomatic cable.
Another cable from late 2009 reveals that Fidel's brother, Raul, expressed an interest in opening a direct dialogue with the White House, but was apparently told any dealings should be conducted through normal diplomatic channels.
The January 2009 dispatch on Castro's health was sent from the US Interests section and classified as "secret". It said Cubans' "generally conservative nature after 50 years of repression, combined with still significant admiration for Fidel personally, argue against short term disturbances."
The cable, which was released Wednesday by WikiLeaks and posted online by the Spanish newspaper El Pais, was apparently written by Jonathan Farrar, the top US diplomat on the island. Washington maintains the interests section instead of an embassy because the two cold war enemies have no formal diplomatic relations. Farrar is referred to as chief of mission, not ambassador.
In the cable, Farrar said he expected the Cuban government to carefully manage the announcement of Fidel Castro's death to make sure islanders understand that his brother Raul is still in charge.
Raul took over the presidency from an ailing Fidel — first temporarily, then permanently in 2006.
The two brothers have led Cuba since they ousted dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959, with Raul serving as the head of the armed forces before taking over the top spot.
"GOC (Government of Cuba) officials would most likely manage the death announcement and subsequent funeral arrangements, etc., in great detail with a view toward putting the best face on the situation, both domestically and to the world," the cable reads.
"Utmost care will be given to ensuring that the Cuban public understands that Raul and the rest of the GOC remain in firm control."