June.3 : Considering the performance of various political parties in the 2009 elections, no impartial observer can question the fact that the Congress is the clear winner. And the general opinion in the country has been that the elections were conducted in a fair and impartial manner. Of course, there is the widespread impression that cash was distributed to gain votes and one hopes that this matter will receive the earnest attention of all political parties, particularly of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). This charge, however, should not detract from the credit due to the Congress for increasing its strength in the Lok Sabha from 145 to 206 as it was a charge against rich candidates from all political parties and not targeted at the Congress alone.
However, it will be a grave mistake on the part of the Congress if it treats this win as a "historic" one, something in the nature of an event which has changed the course of Indian politics. The Congress’ victory is no doubt impressive, but it is premature to describe it as "historic" as many Congress leaders have already done.
In the last two decades, election victories have proved to be very fickle and, therefore, one has to be very careful in drawing hasty conclusions from them. Having reached the pinnacle of 405 seats in 1984, the Congress’ strength fell to 197 in 1989. It made a partial recovery to 232 in 1991, but sank to 141 in 1992, 114 in 1995 and to 145 in 2004. Euphoria is certainly justified for a party which won 206 seats on its own this year, but the Congress will be well advised to take note of certain warring signals from some of the states where it fared well in 2009.
Take the case of Andhra Pradesh where the Congress increased its tally from 29 in 2004 to 33 in 2009. While this is a big increase, the trend in the Assembly election appears to be different. The number of Congress seats in the Assembly elections fell from 185 in 2004 to 157 in 2009, while rival Telugu Desam Party (TDP) increased is tally from 47 to 92. It is also important to note that the TDP’s vote share in the Assembly election is 37.27 per cent, very close to the Congress’ 38.62 per cent.
It will be a mistake on the Congress’ part to think that in future also it can easily bag 16 seats (13 for Congress and 3 for its allies) of the 20 seats in Kerala. This year has witnessed infighting in the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M). It would be unwise to expect that these circumstances will continue as a permanent feature of Kerala politics. It should not be forgotten that in 2004 the Congress drew a blank because of internal strife.
Restoration of inner-party democracy and strengthening of the party organisation at every level in the states through regular elections alone can guarantee success in future elections and bring the organisation to a "fighting fit" state to meet the challenges facing it.
As far as the BJP is concerned, its defeat in the general elections can only be described as disappointing. Unfortunately, both in the 2004 and 2009 election campaigns, the BJP created an impression that its victory was round the corner. It kept repeating the theme that it alone would be able to provide both development and security. But it failed to correctly assess the acceptability of its claim to the common people.
The results of the elections clearly show that the BJP’s support base had suffered serious erosion in most of the large states. The vote share of the BJP in the 2009 elections declined by 3.4 per cent to 18.8 per cent from the 2004 elections. The worst case was Rajasthan where the fall in vote share was 12.4 per cent. Today, the situation calls for serious introspection, not just about the plans the BJP should adopt in election campaigns but also about the fundamentals of its doctrines and aims as a political party seeking people’s mandate.
The BJP was constrained to contest polls alone in most of the states. In Bihar it succeeded in keeping its alliance intact with the Janata Dal-United (JD-U). But most of the allies who supported the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in 1999 were reluctant to lend support to the BJP in 2009. All major allies like the All-India Trinamul Congress, the TDP, the Biju Janata Dal and the AIADMK distanced themselves from the BJP as they believed that an alliance would result in alienation of the liberal voters. In spite of the fact that the BJP had projected a relatively liberal leader like L.K. Advani as its prime ministerial candidate, it found itself alienated from most of its old allies.
Many people within the BJP are confused about the relations that organisations like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP), Bajrang Dal and the Ram Sene have with the party. There have been many political parties in the past, such as the Hindu Maha Sabha and Jan Sangh, which took pride in calling themselves "Hindu parties", but they were disowned by the bulk of the Hindu community which remained committed to the principles of tolerance, communal harmony and national integration.
For the majority of Hindus in India, the basic doctrines which guide them in every sector of activity are those preached by the Gita and they will be reluctant to depart from these principles and doctrines in politics also. Intolerance is alien to their culture and heritage and their natural instinct is to oppose communalism and religious fanaticism in any form.
The BJP was also against communalism in politics and had distanced itself from religious fanatics who had taken on the responsibility to be the guardians and protectors of the Hindu community which accounts for 85 per cent of the country’s population. However, the affinity which the BJP maintained with some of these groups in recent elections had created genuine doubts among many Hindus as to where the BJP stands for on basic issues like tolerance and harmony irrespective of the religion followed by the people.
The introspection of the BJP to be meaningful should, therefore, be about what objectives it should have as a political party in today’s India and what strategies it should adopt to serve its objectives in ordinary times and in times of election to make it a representative party for all sections of society, and not merely for a particular section.
P.C. Alexander is a former governor of Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra
P.C. Alexander
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