There are suggestions of a quiet leadership struggle within the hard right separatist camp in Kashmir that may in part account for the violent anti-government campaign which has led to nearly three dozen civilian deaths in just under two months.
Observers in the Valley attribute the virulence of the agitation to the exertions of Masrat Alam, a former militant commander who for many years was wont to play lieutenant to the elderly Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the charismatic hardcore pro-Pakistan ideologue who broke away from Jamaat-e-Islami some years ago and established Tehreek-e-Hurriyat.
Apparently Mr Alam now aspires to get into Mr Geelani’s shoes. With the authorities on the lookout for him, he has gone underground and is said to be directing the present campaign from behind the scenes.
Many believe that Mr Alam has gone on the offensive in order to wrest the leadership of pro-Pakistan extremists and outflank Mr Geelani, who is typically not known to endorse public violence. Asiya Andrabi, founder and leader of Dukhtaran-e-Millat (“Daughters of the Islamic Nation”), is thought to be an ally of Mr Alam at this juncture. This is said to partly explain the extensive participation of women in the current agitation at many places.
It is to be seen if Mr Geelani’s appeal to the youth on Wednesday not to attack police posts and railway stations, and to shun violence, will work as a move to counter the plans of the younger man, who seeks to acquire his mantle. Irrespective of that, the staunch separatist has put to shame leaders of mainstream parties who are yet to make a public appeal for calm.
Observers in Kashmir refer to three features of the current agitation which government figures, the chief minister included, have not alluded to in public remarks. If these are not contained, the sentiments and tactics fuelling the agitation may be expected to intensify and broaden.
One, the hardcore among rock-throwing mobs are mobile — they move from place to place and travel between towns, seeking to take in their sweep even rural areas. Two, in some places they have engaged in professional rock-pelting even at night as they attack government buildings.
Three, many youngsters now active in rock-throwing earlier took part in the Assembly election campaign for one party or another, but ended up on the losing side in their constituency.
Observers suggest the last may point to a concerted effort on the part of several elements — cutting across parties — to press for a fresh election so that they may get another chance in quick succession to get into positions of power or influence. Such elements are getting sucked into becoming an instrument in the power struggle in a leading separatist camp.