With Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi denouncing the ordinance to shield convicted netas, all eyes are now on the RJD chief and a loyal ally of the UPA, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav.
The verdict in the fodder scam has been fixed for September 30 in which Mr Yadav is among 45 accused charged for criminal complicity in fraudulent withdrawal of `37.7 crores from Chaibasa treasury in the early 1990s.
If convicted and ordinance withdrawn, Mr Yadav’s political career might be in jeopardy.
Incidentally, Mr Yadav’s support in a pre and post poll scenario could be crucial for the Congress. Along with Mr Yadav, Congress Rajya Sabha MP and influential Muslim leader from Saharanpur, Mr Rashid Masood, will be losing sleep over the fate of the ordinance. If Mr Yadav is convicted by the court and sent to jail, which could result in him losing his parliamentary seat too, Bihar politics could see a major shift ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. After the JD(U) severed its 17-year tie with the BJP, Mr Yadav is hopeful to improve his tally of Lok Sabha seats so as to play a key role in the formation of the next government at the Centre.
“If Mr Yadav has to lose his Chhapra Lok Sabha seat and subsequently barred from contesting, there could be a massive impact on the poll prospects of the RJD in Bihar. With Mr Tejaswi, son of Mr Yadav, yet to establish himself as a mass leader, it will be a tough call for Ms Rabri Devi to rally the party cadres in the elections,” said a senior RJD leader.
Mr Yadav has been addressing rallies across the states for the past one year in a bid to revive the fortunes of the RJD and also to benefit from the JD(U)-BJP breakup. If the RJD fails to win a good number of seats in Bihar in the next elections, the Congress may have to face hard bargain from state CM Nitish Kumar for an outside support.