Even as the BJP is predicting a Modi wave across the country for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the regional parties in the UPA, NDA and outside do not see any threat from the BJP’s chief election manager Narendra Modi.
BJP leaders are talking of “charismatic” leadership of Mr Modi but concede privately that he cannot be more charismatic than former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee.
In fact, Mr Modi’s acceptability among regional parties is a big question mark before his campaigners. The RSS will have to address this issue before the BJP endorses its decision to project the Gujarat CM as party’s PM candidate.
Barring the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), no regional party has come forward in Mr Modi’s favour. But the SAD is not relying on the Modi factor in Punjab.
On the other hand, the Shiv Sena officials recall how the Modi card did not work in Maharashtra in the last elections.
Mr Modi cannot make a dent in the Samajwadi Party and BSP’s respective votebanks in Uttar Pradesh for the simple reason that his “Gujarat model of development” will have no takers in these sections in UP, viewed some MPs from the Hindi heartland.
“The BJP can get mileage in UP only through polarising people on communal lines. And in Bihar, on the anti-Lalu Yadav card,” they said.
Mr Modi cannot get political space in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Orissa ruled by the Trinamul Congress, the AIADMK and the Biju Janata Dal, respectively. “Ideally, his fight should have been with these parties in the three states in the absence of the Congress. But he cannot afford to antagonise chief ministers Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik with a hope that they could be BJP’s post-poll allies,” they said.
It will be interesting to see whether the AIADMK would go with the NDA before the polls and or play its cards after the polls.
Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tripura are another three states dominated by regional parties. Now, the issue is why should they give their space to the BJP to make Mr Modi the PM.