An analysis of rainfall data of the India Meteorological Depart-ment shows that rainfall trends are changing in India.
For one, experts point out there are more incidents of excess rain. This is true of the state of Uttarakhand which has witnessed excess rain in the month of June for the past several years.
Extreme weather events are also on the rise and need to be studied much more seriously.
The districts of Chamoli, Rudraprayag and Uttarkashi which received over 350 per cent extra rain this year in June have also been receiving excess rain in the same month for the past several years.
Although last year, the state suffered a deficit of rain in the month of June, this has not been the case in the preceding five years according to IMD records.
In 2011, Uttarkashi district received 146 per cent excess rainfall compared to the long period average (LPA). The corresponding figures for 2010, 2009 and 2008 are 25 per cent, 31 per cent and 98 per cent. Chamoli received 57 per cent excess rainfall in June in 2011, 18 per cent in 2010 and 59 per cent in 2008. Rudraprayag also received a deficit rainfall in 2008, 2009, 2009, 2010 and 2012 but in 2011 it received excess rainfall of 70 per cent.
Weather scientists analysing monsoon trends from 1961 to 2004 show that the amount of rainfall received has increased in both May and June and this is a pan India phenomenon.
But rainfall has decreased in the months of July and August.
Dr J. Srinivasan, professor, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the Indian Institute of Science in Bengaluru admits that June sees more rainfall than earlier but July is now receiving less rainfall and this phenomenon needs to be studied.
Day-to-day rainfall might become more variable thereby affecting the lives of millions of people especially farmers especially since the monsoon is also getting affected by climate change and global warming.