With PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif becoming Prime Minister following the recent election, there is a good deal of expectation in India that ties between the two countries will improve. However, this expectation is tempered with an understandable degree of caution. It was during the veteran industrialist-politician’s last term as PM that the Pakistan Army, then led by Gen. Pervez Musharraf, brought about the Kargil intrusion which led to a sharp military exchange between India and Pakistan in May-June 1999.
As became known afterwards, Mr Sharif had little to do with the decision and Gen. Musharraf acted behind the back of the civilian government. In the backdrop of this sour episode, it’s not clear to what extent the armed forces establishment — Pakistan’s Deep State — will permit the new PM the latitude to build bilateral ties with India, although this is Mr Sharif’s declared objective and India’s hope too.
Terrorist groups that target this country are chafing, and are said to be keen to show their hand in Kashmir this summer. So the eminently pragmatic Mr Sharif does have a problem on his hands. His massive victory has relied on dense support in Pakistan’s Punjab province, home to Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, the most notorious of anti-India terrorist outfits midwifed by Pakistan’s ISI.
Notwithstanding Mr Sharif’s impressive victory after 60 per cent of voters turned out in politically fractured times, which enables the PML(N) chief to become PM for the third time in his long career, the nature of his triumph appears to have an inbuilt instability factor.
Although the PML(N) picked up enough seats to all but form a government on its own strength, it has garnered too few seats from Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Will Mr Sharif then be too caught up with domestic troubleshooting to be able to pay attention to the Pakistan-India dynamic?
It will be interesting to see the terms on which the new PM is able to build a coalition of interests that involve provinces other than Punjab. Pakistan-US relations may also claim a disproportionate share of attention of the Nawaz Sharif government, considering that drone attacks in the tribal belt have become a sensitive political issue.
With Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf led by former cricketer Imran Khan all set to govern the restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and Mr Khan declaring he will play the role of an effective Opposition at the federal level, the Prime Minister will have to be nimble-footed to further India-Pakistan ties. On the whole, however, Pakistan deserves congratulations for having completed a five-year civilian transformation for the first time in its tortured history.