The current border impasse following the Chinese intrusion isn’t the only matter India is keeping a close eye on. It’s also playing the wait and watch game on its neighbour’s “no first use” (NFU) policy on nuclear weapons with this doctrine finding no mention in China’s latest White paper on defence.
There is concern in the government that the crucial NFU doctrine, which has been part of its’ neighbour’s nuclear policy for nearly five decades, has failed to find explicit mention in the White Paper titled The Diversified Employment of China’s Armed Forces released 11 days ago.
An official noted, “The NFU has been a cardinal feature of the Chinese nuclear policy. So the tacit silence in the White Paper is a matter of concern.” Particularly when China has been showing increased aggression and muscle-flexing towards its neighbours in the region, among them Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines over competing claims on the South China Sea, said the official.
The government says it will “ need to examine and analyse the change in language in the White Paper to see its actual implications” while noting that “ the language in this white paper is a little different” from what it has been in previous years and its implications need to be studied.
Dr Arvind Gupta, director-general IDSA (Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses), who has written a paper titled China’s Defence White Paper 2013: Lessons for India, is cautions that “it’s too early to jump to conclusions about NFU. Noting that the latest White Paper is much shorter than the previous ones with the focus on this one being on the capability of China’s armed forces.
However, Dr Gupta notes that “the fact that China has omitted explicit mention of NFU is an important one as it puts doubts in our minds”. He adds, “They may not have dropped it but have perhaps diluted it as it does not find any mention. This will need to be watched.”