Indian politics can be baffling; its nuances can elude its most hardened practitioners. Great uncertainties characterise the current relations between the Janata Dal (United) — whose stalwart leader and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar carries positive brand recognition across India — and the BJP, which is crucial to the well-being of the National Democratic Alliance as a viable arrangement which can make a bid for power.
The language of Mr Kumar’s speech at the JD(U) session in the national capital on Sunday as well as of its political resolution, which sharply contested the strong impulse within the BJP to name Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the NDA’s candidate for Prime Minister, and the cutting BJP riposte that followed, gives the impression that an unbridgeable gulf has come to exist between the two partners. This does offer a basis to predict the end of the NDA as we know it. And yet, it’s easy to see that the two sides still have enough leeway to pull back from the brink.
Ties between these parties, sustained since 1996, are crucial. The JD(U) is the only “secular” party left in the NDA. The others of that ilk withdrew from partnering the BJP with the fading of the Atal Behari Vajpayee era. If the JD(U) too departs, the NDA will comprise only the Shiv Sena and Akali Dal, besides the BJP. These regional outfits are historically rooted in religious and linguistic chauvinism.
With the formation of the NDA, it was the BJP’s effort to retain “secular” parties on its side in order to offer an effective challenge to the Congress or a front led by it (such as the UPA) in order to, first, fight an election and, then, cobble together a post-election coalition that might undertake to form the government. These aims will be hard to subserve if the NDA consists only of parties anchored in chauvinism of one kind or another.
If the BJP has a historical memory, it should need no reminding about such imperatives. The saffron elements will also need to bear in mind that they have virtually lost a government in Karnataka with the exit of B.S. Yeddyurappa. Can they afford to lose one in Bihar (where Nitish Kumar leads the coalition) in the Hindi heartland, with no compensating dividend in sight as we approach the next Lok Sabha election?
The question concerns the JD(U) and the BJP. If the Bihar government folds up, the JD(U) will face an array of unpalatable choices. But there is more at stake for the party with a national ambition. A section of the BJP has unleashed the Modi whirlwind. If the party can’t find a way to deal with it, there may be much to lose.