The ambush and beheading of an Indian military patrolman on the Indian side of the Line of Control and the terrorist blasts in Hyderabad, both in quick succession, have been topped by the fidayeen attack on unarmed CRPF jawans in Srinagar earlier this week. It would be extraordinary if these were a coincidence.
In normal analytical terms in the India-Pakistan context, it would be naïve not to look for a Pakistani trigger. The smoking gun is rarely at hand in such cases. But forensics in the Hyderabad case, and in the Srinagar attack, cannot help us escape the conclusion that Islamabad is once again modifying its tactical stance toward India and returning, after a lapse of time, to the trick of plausible deniability while launching a terrorist campaign.
This could be due to domestic political compulsions. With the United States military due to leave Afghanistan shortly, Islamabad may want to divert the attention of its jihadi outfits towards India, Kashmir in particular, rather than face their ire. At the moment some of them are busy targeting the Pakistan military for maintaining ties with the Americans. There could be other reasons. In an election year, all parties, including the military, will want to ramp up the nationalist dimension by encouraging assaults on India with the help of outfits nurtured by the ISI to specifically target India. The Pakistan National Assembly, convening on the last day of its session on Thursday before the general election, criticised India for hanging Afzal Guru in the Parliament attack case.
A pattern is thus evident, and India should respond sensibly to the swerve in policy in Islamabad. Parliament did well Friday to allow Speaker Meira Kumar to initiate a resolution criticising the Pakistan Parliament for seeking to meddle in India’s internal affairs, using Afzal Guru as an excuse. It is good the resolution got unanimous all-party support. But the government must think creatively on finding the right instruments to deal with pro-Pakistan terrorist outfits. More, it has to infuse confidence at the popular level in Kashmir. That is crucial.
New Delhi’s refusal to return Guru’s body to his family for burial has fuelled anti-India sentiments on the ground in Kashmir, and raised the temperature across the Valley. This has certainly been exploited by the terror planners in Pakistan. We saw the results in the J&K Assembly in the way members spoke on the Guru issue and later about the attack on the CRPF jawans. It seems political inputs are sorely lacking in the government’s dealings with Kashmir.