When he meets with Pakistan foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi in Islamabad on July 15, external affairs minister S.M. Krishna will be only too keenly aware that his brief is a complex one on account of the lingering domestic sense of unmet expectations from Islamabad in the 26/11 context.
On the eve of Mr Krishna’s two-day trip commencing Tuesday, informed sources here indicated that India’s approach cannot be anything but “incremental”.
The way matters stand, only a “step by step” progression may be expected at this stage of trying to breathe a sense of communication into the engagement with Islamabad, sources familiar with the issue said.
Knowledgeable sources do not fail to mention, however, that Pakistan’s civilian leadership does appear keen on maintaining the dialogue and the incipient peace process with India, although the extent of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani’s authority in a country with a tradition of military rule continues to be a matter of some speculation. In that sense, the Indian approach may be deemed to be a stab at peace in the dark.
Ordinarily, the recent violent disturbances seen in Kashmir may have been grist to Pakistan’s mill. Sources say, however, that Islamabad may not be expected to unduly muddy the waters on the Kashmir question if it is to live up to its proclaimed keenness to maintain the dialogue process that has been brought about with considerable difficulty at the initiative of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Nevertheless, the Indian side appears prepared to call a spade a spade if Pakistan seeks to take advantage of the current situation in the Valley, and blame elements in Pakistan for actively fomenting the recent troubles.
During the interaction of the foreign secretaries of the two countries in Islamabad on June 24, the emerging consensus was to stick to the “doables” at this stage. Available indications are that this could include humanitarian issues such as the release of each other’s fishermen, and also some considerations concerning cross-border trade across Jammu and Kashmir which has almost died on the vine.
Matters pertaining to regional dynamics such as Afghanistan, and India’s assertion of the legitimacy of its role in that country, are likely to figure at the foreign minister talks in the event that Islamabad alludes to such questions. Mr Krishna is expected to call on Prime Minister Gilani to post him on the perceived political mood in India on bilateral relations.