New dawn for Japan

The expected victory of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the traditional rulers for most of the post-World War period, comes at a critical time for the country. The malaise is both domestic and in international affairs.

Japan has been in recession for years, and although it was caught in the world spiral, Japanese leaders have been less than competent and dynamic in implementing policies. And, in a tragic scenario, the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown amidst an unprecedented tsunami and flooding created a sense of despondency.
It happened on the watch of the Democratic Party (DPJ) of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda. The party was just over three years in office. And Prime Ministers came and went. The DPJ did not have a majority in the Upper House and had to make uncomfortable compromises, the last of which was the promise to call an early general election.
Even before Japanese media were projecting a sweep for the LDP on the basis of exit polls, it was universally acknowledged that the old war horse, Shinzo Abe, who was Prime Minister in 2006 and 2007, would win. But there were interesting twists because two firebrand leaders had teamed up to form a new party with a nationalist overtone. Not only has Japan yielded place to China as the second-largest world economy, but the rapid expansion of Chinese military accompanied by exaggerated rhetoric on Beijing’s right to disputed island in the East China Sea have brought despondency and anger in Japan.
The likely new Prime Minister, Mr Abe, will first have to restore confidence and a measure of greater prosperity at home. The country has to make a quantum leap in how it should run the state and the economy. After all, Japan achieved its famous economic miracle after the defeat and devastation it had suffered in the last World War. But even as many were celebrating “Japan as No. 1”, the rest of the world was moving ahead at an unprecedented technological pace. Japan’s own virtues of lifetime employment, persistence, patience and obedience and a large pool of technical skills came to haunt it.
Japan’s democratic political development was also becoming increasingly dated, with powerful factions in parties, rather than parties themselves, playing the major cards. Usually the shelf life of Prime Ministers has been so short that bureaucrats have become the virtual rulers in a highly centralised system. Another LDP legacy, which will be difficult to shake off, is pork-barrel politics — vast sums of money were spent on infrastructure with roads and bridges often leading nowhere, just to please the rural constituency.
Mr Abe has already hinted at following a more robust policy towards China to counter what the Japanese consider a new arrogance their neighbour has acquired with its economic success and military modernisation. There is much debate on the post-war American-drafted Japanese Constitution giving Japan defensive, but not offensive, options. Ironically, the self-styled Japan’s Self-Defence Forces are highly professional and modern and would be no walkover for an enemy. Japanese nationalists, whose ranks are growing, demand the deletion of the offending article against the backdrop of strained relations with China. But the new rulers in Tokyo will walk warily, given the neighbour’s sensitivities following the depredations of the Imperial Army in China and Southeast Asia.
In fact, the general impression that Mr Abe is more on the side of the nationalists should serve to temper the domestic debate. One should recall that it was Mr Abe who had suggested a strategic link-up among the US, Japan, India and Australia, an approach that was set aside for diplomatic reasons. The new Japanese administration will take a firm line with China without provoking it — recent strains have cost Japan a pile in exports in its biggest market — but the immediate task for Mr Abe will be in the domestic field. He has described it as giving the people back their confidence and letting them make money.
Japan is also staring at the prospect of a shrinking population, with its very low rate of reproduction due to economic and cultural factors, and Japanese live long lives. This translates into the young having to work for many more old people to maintain their standard of living. To compound the problem, the Fukushima meltdown has made Japanese wary of nuclear energy, which provides much-needed power to a resource-starved country.
Whether Mr Abe will be able to measure up to the immense problems he faces remains to be seen. There is a sense of ennui among the Japanese because both the main parties have failed them, with the Democratic Party making a hash of their opportunity to rule. But the new-old Prime Minister has read the country’s pulse. What he needs to do is to inspire a new economic and political miracle given the assets at his command. The restructuring of the economic model will take time but efforts are already on to make the traditional system more flexible. And Japan has an
army of skilled technicians and high-quality research institutions
to invent the toys of tomorrow.
Despite his domestic agenda, Mr Abe will need to seek a new modus vivendi with China whose new leadership is cutting its teeth. Thus far, given the reported statement of the Chinese Communist Party chief, Xi Jingping, urging greater militarisation, the signs are not propitious. It would be wise to give the two newly installed leaders time to catch their breath before the world makes surmises.
Perhaps the Japanese shine best in periods of great uncertainty and crises. With rare exceptions, Japanese leaders seem faceless, partly, one supposes, because of their dress regimen on official occasions. Mr Abe has earned his political stripes by being more outspoken and
less circuitous in his declarations.
As a contrast, the only charismatic figure to rule Japan in recent times, Junichiro Koizumi, failed to leave a lasting impact on his country. What he did give his people was a new persona. Indeed, he became a cult figure with his ample tresses and a proclaimed fan of Elvis Presley and rock music.