Political equations in Maharashtra will change after the demise of Shiv Sena chief Bal Thackeray. While the NCP and the Congress will try to win over Shiv Sainiks, the BJP would like to fight the next electoral battle with Raj Thackeray. The major issue is whether Uddhav and Raj Thackeray will work together to consolidate the anti-Congress votes in the post-Balasaheb era.
The Sharad Pawar-led NCP grieved with the Shiv Sena over Bal Thackeray’s death. In fact, the NCP was the first party (and perhaps the only party) which had released advertisements in newspapers lauding Balasaheb. This showed the special place the NCP had for Balasaheb and his Shiv Sena. The NCP leaders compared Balasaheb with Y.B. Chavan.
In the post-Balasaheb era, the Congress would find it difficult to win over the Shiv Sena cadre for the simple reason that this can give a wrong message to the minorities. Besides, the Shiv Sena’s voters are anti-Congress. And the Congress cannot go with the MNS openly because of Raj Thackeray’s anti-North Indians stand.
Mr Chhagan Bhujbal and Mr Narayan Rane were in top ranks in the Shiv Sena hierarchy but they become caste and regional leaders after joining the Congress.
The Congress, NCP and even the BJP would like the Shiv Sena to be strong in Mumbai for different reasons.
Everything depends on how Uddhav and Raj play their cards, insiders said. The Congress in Maharashtra has been lacking a face and a leader where regional parties (NCP, Shiv Sena, MNS, RPI factions) have been playing a decisive role in the elections. After the defeat in the BMC elections, chief minister Prithviraj Chavan is said to have built bridges with Shiv Sena executive president Uddhav Thackeray to check the NCP.
The Shiv Sena and the NCP are fighting for political space in Konokan and the NCP and the BJP are main rivals in north Maharashtra.
While the Congress and the NCP are uncomfortable in western Maharashtra, in Mumbai the fight has always been between the Congress and the Shiv Sena. Therefore, the political situation in Maharashtra will become more complex in the coming months.
The Shiv Sena had revived in the state when Congress veteran and the then chief minister Vasantdada Patil had said that “Mumbai is in Maharashtra but Maharashtra is not seen in Mumbai” and “the Centre is planning to grant Union Territory status to Mumbai”. These two sentences brought the Shiv Sena back to power in the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) in 1985.
The Shiv Sena had become irrelevant politically after the drubbing in 1971 general election and virtually remained in political hibernation till the BMC polls.