Mr Modi, it’s not personal, it’s business

It is a measure of the desperation of Narendra Modi and his band of acolytes that a decision by the British government to “reopen” ties with the Gujarat government has been greeted so effusively. Mr Modi has immediately announced that it is “further proof that Gujarat’s success story as investment destination cannot be ignored”.

This implies that the British are more interested in doing business than wasting time on justice etc, an interpretation the British government will not particularly care for. Yet, Mr Modi may have hit the nail on the head — diplomacy, after all, is all about furthering the bigger interests of a country and when companies from other countries are looking at setting up factories in Gujarat, why should the British be left behind? So it’s all about money, honey.
Some may quibble about the British adopting double standards, going on about human rights concerns while really concentrating on trade, but that is being naïve. What is more intriguing is why the mandarins in London chose this moment, when an election is under way; couldn’t they have waited for a couple of more months? Are they trying to send a message? Certainly, Modi supporters will spin it as a sign that Western governments are reading the political climate correctly and are investing in the future Prime Minister.
In which case, both the British as well as Mr Modi and his fans may have read the tea leaves wrong. For, neither is it certain by any means that he will be the Prime Minister after 2014, nor can he feel sanguine that his troubles about getting a visa are over. And even if he did (as CM or as PM), a visit to the UK, Canada or the US could be fraught with legal problems, and we are not talking about a bunch of Indian pseudo-secular types holding placards and shouting slogans.
The British decision doesn’t make sense if viewed through the political spectrum. Sure, their own political analysts and diplomats may have concluded that Mr Modi’s path to the top job is a done deal, but there are just too many imponderables and variables to consider. Is Mr Modi the sole hopeful for the job in the BJP? As we know, there are several pretenders to the throne, and each one will work to cancel the other out. Mr Modi’s own cohorts, (some of them his friends) will do everything to prevent his rise and let us not forget that Lal Krishna Advani still counts for a lot in the party. So Mr Modi remains just one more player in the race, even if he is a nose ahead.
An even more fundamental question is — will the BJP win enough seats to demand the PM’s chair? As things stand, the NDA is in poor shape, with allies either distancing themselves or doing their own thing unmindful of what the BJP thinks, like the Akali Dal’s completely shameful behaviour in tacitly encouraging pro-Khalistan elements. Nitish Kumar continues to blow hot and cold and he has dreams of his own. Why would he jeopardise his own chances for the top job by backing Mr Modi of all people? The short point is that the “Modi as PM candidate” narrative is pure propaganda, with little or no substance, at least at the moment.
The British are no fools — they wouldn’t jump in if some self-interest was not involved. In this case, it could be to ensure that their companies are not left out in the investment race in Gujarat and considering that he is likely to win in the state again, they want to keep him happy. Their calculation is correct — he is delighted and now when British companies come calling, they will get VIP treatment. Meanwhile, a few pro-forma statements about human rights, justice etc. will emanate from the British side when it is required.
More important, from Mr Modi’s point of view is what he gets out of this. Is his pariah status over? Will he now get a visa and then, when he lands in London, get red-carpet treatment. Can he now start dreaming of heading to Washington, New York and Edison, New Jersey?
Not so fast. Even if he does get a visa to Britain, a trip there would be fraught with risks, or at least embarrassment. In June this year, Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse had to cancel a speaking engagement in London because Tamil activists threatened to disrupt the meeting and there was a security risk. The polarising figure that Mr Modi is, any high-profile visit to a country where a sizeable number of people of Indian origin live will definitely create a stir. He has been to China and Japan, but Britain or the US are quite a different matter.
So far the British have not said anything about giving him a visa; but even if they do, the US has steadfastly made it clear that no visa will be forthcoming. There is no dearth of lobbyists in the US trying very hard to overturn this decision, but they have had no success so far. An American pat on the back remains the holy grail for Mr Modi, but that remains elusive.
A visit by the British high commissioner to Ahmedabad to meet Mr Modi and other government officials should be seen in this perspective. It gives him something to hold on to, something to crow about.
For 10 years the British stayed away from any contact; now one of their senior diplomats is visiting to discuss “a wide range of issues of mutual interest and to explore opportunities for closer cooperation”. Read into it what you will, but this bland diplomatic language gives little away except to say that the British, keen for investment opportunities, do not want to miss the bus in Gujarat. It is not an endorsement, and certainly not approval of Mr Modi, whatever he and his fan club thinks.