Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence provides funding, training and sanctuary at an unprecedented level to the Taliban in Afghanistan, claims a new study by the London School of Economics released on Sunday.
The study, by Harvard University analyst Matt Waldman for LSE, makes it clear that Pakistani support to the Taliban goes far beyond what was previously thought. A majority of members of the 15-man Quetta Shura, the Taliban’s supreme leadership council, are believed to be ISI agents — and they have a major influence on Taliban strategy and policy. “Interviews strongly suggest that the ISI has representatives on the shura, either as participants or observers, and the agency is thus involved at the highest levels of the movement,” according to the LSE study.
The study highlights real evidence of extensive cooperation between the Taliban and the ISI, which is shown to have “even greater sway over Haqqani insurgents” led by Jalaluddin Haqqani, whose outfit is suspected of carrying out strikes on the Indian embassy in Kabul in July 2008 and October 2009.
In London, the BBC, SkyNews and the Sunday Times reported that the study, based on interviews with nine Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan earlier this year, also accuses Pakistan of appearing to play a double game of “astonishing magnitude”.
Speaking exclusively to this newspaper, Mr Waldman said Pakistan’s support for the Afghan Taliban was “official ISI policy” and noted that its influence extends to the top Taliban leadership.
His report also concludes that without a change in Pakistani behaviour it would be difficult for the US-led Nato forces and President Hamid Karzai’s government to make real peace in Afghanistan.
The spy agency’s links with the Taliban have been talked about a lot, but the LSE study is the first to establish that the cooperation between the two sides is at such an unprecedented scale. “This report is consistent with Pakistan’s political history in which civilian leaders actively backed jihadi groups that operate in Afghanistan and Kashmir,” Mr Waldman said.
“It is hard to see how the international coalition can continue to treat Pakistan as an ally and effective partner,” Mr Waldman told this newspaper. But in remarks that might cause New Delhi some concern, he also argues that the
fundamental causes of Pakistan’s insecurity, in particular its conflict with India, must be addressed speedily. He said: “It is essential that the leaders of India and Pakistan, and outside powers such as the United States and international organisations such as the UN, make strenuous efforts to try to build trust between India and Pakistan and to move their
relationship in the right direction.”
Mr Waldman’s remarks resemble those of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top US military commander in
Afghanistan, who had said last year that increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan was likely to exacerbate regional tensions.
The LSE study, based on dozens of interviews and corroborated by two senior Western security officials, states: “As the provider of sanctuary and substantial financial, military and logistical support to the insurgency, the ISI appears to have strong strategic and operational influence — reinforced by coercion. There is thus a strong case that the ISI orchestrates, sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign.”
The report also said Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari allegedly met in a prison some 50 captured Taliban leaders, some of whom were later released, to assure them that the Taliban had his government’s full support. Mr Zardari, however, denies that any such meeting took place.
Mr Waldman said the ties between the ISI and the Taliban were deep. “This goes far beyond just limited, or occasional support. This is very significant levels of support being provided by the ISI.”
Stressing on the cooperation between the two groups, he said in the report: “We’re also saying this is official policy of that agency, and we’re saying that it is very extensive. It is both at an operational level, and at a strategic level, right at the senior leadership of the Taliban movement.”
The study also said Pakistan needed to curb the ISI for any progress against insurgency in Afghanistan. “The Pakistan government’s apparent duplicity — and awareness of it among the American public and political establishment — could have enormous geopolitical implications. Without a change in Pakistani behaviour it will be difficult, if not impossible, for international forces and the Afghan government to make progress against the insurgency,” the study added.