The government’s decision to make 25 per cent public shareholding mandatory for all companies could cap the upside of the stock market, say brokers. However, for some companies — subsidiaries of multinationals where promoter holding is above 75 per cent, there could be a windfall profit.
At current prices, the policy would require share sales worth $32 billion, says brokerage house JP Morgan in a note. Of the total, $13 billion worth of shares will have to be sold over the next 12 months.
The large volume of shares coming into the market could cap the overall gains for investors, the broker says. Incidentally, some of the companies that will need to sell shares to meet the new norm — DLF, Mundra Port, NMDC, MMTC and Hindustan Copper — are amongst the big losers in the markets on Monday.
For this much of fresh equity to be absorbed comfortably, global risk appetite will have to be supportive, given India’s dependence on foreign capital. There is a view that the government may extend the compliance period if markets are depressed, like they were in FY09.
However, the maximum impact of the move will be on public sector companies. This is because many of the top PSUs have government holding of over 75 per cent.
The move will facilitate PSU disinvestment politically, says Merrill Lynch. Of the $32 billion shares that need to be sold, $26.8 billion would come from the public sector, the brokerage house says.
Indian private sector will account for about $4 billion of equity issuances. MMTC, NMDC, NTPC, Hindustan Copper, SAIL, Power Grid, Power Finance and Neyveli Lignite will see disinvestments of over $1 billion each.
Subsidiairies of foreign companies where promoter shareholding is above 75 per cent may choose to de-list rather than sell shares, says India Infoline.
This could mean a temporary spike in stock price as delisting may be at a premium. Oracle, Gilette, 3M, Alfa Laval, Atlas Copco, Sulzer and Astrazeneca Pharma are amongst the MNC subsidiairies where promoters own 75 per cent. of the shares.