The process of political realignment has begun in the middle of the presidential election. While the Congress could be compelled to go for the UPA-3 if the BJP-RSS projects Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, regional players have been lacking appeal, charisma and modern vision despite being keen to be relevant at the national level.
The BJP continues to be in a dilemma whether to follow the Jana Sangha or the Atal Behari Vajpayee line despite leading a front of anti-Congress parties. The presidential election has seen split in the UPA, NDA and the Left Fronts on ideology and strategy.
The Congress has never been comfortable on leading a coalition at the national level after realising that this could leave its political space to other parties. The Congress had defeated the BJP-led NDA in 2004 Lok Sabha election through a coalition (UPA) at national level. It had not only allied with its one time bitter rival DMK in Tamil Nadu, but left some seats to the left parties outside West Bengal, Kerala and Tripuar in a bid to show the coalition spirit.
But in 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had modified its stand on alliances making it clear that it would prefer state specific alliances rather than at national level.
And the Congress was confident that it would not have to depend on regional parties in 2014 Lok Sabha election after the emergence of yuva netrutva. However, the party’s debacle in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Mumbai municipal corporation polls appears to be compelling it review the coalition strategy.
A Congress minister said “We will have no option but to go for the UPA-3 if the BJP-RSS projects Narendra Modi as their prime ministerial candidate in the coming general election.”
The minister viewed that Modi factor could consolidate secular parties. This means the SP, BSP, JD(U), RJD, LJP, BJD, DMK, NCP, Trinamul Congress, TDP and the Left would have to work on a common strategy with the Congress to check Mr Modi. The Shiromani Akali Dal would remain with the BJP but the Shiv Sena could take an independent stand. This is because the BJP has been trying to keep the MNS in good humour.