It isn’t the end of the world for the BJP. But it might as well be. At 4 pm on Friday, eight ministers in the D V Sadananda Gowda cabinet received a telephone call from their mentor Mr B S Yeddyurappa asking them to go public with the fact that they were about to exit the cabinet.
It was to be the final nail in Sadananda Gowda’s coffin. But three hours later, when there was nary a move from even one of the so-called die-hard supporters of the former chief minister, they received another phone call. The voice at the other end of the line would not brook any interference. Why hadn’t they held the press conference as directed?
Only then did Basavaraj Bommai, Umesh Katti, Murugesh Nirani, Renukacharya, V. Somanna, and C.M.Udasi, two others and the biggest surprise of them all – Jagadish Shettar – drive up to the Chief Minister’s residence and submit their resignations from the cabinet.
Delhi – and specifically Mr L K Advani - which put the presidential poll above the Karnataka conundrum – would like all of this to just go away. Brushed under the carpet, swatted away like bothersome flies…aargh!!
But the puppeteer who has made a tactical retreat into the shadows, and wants this to be seen as a group, acting independently of him, marching to another drummer, is not about to allow the shadows to claim him. He is not going anywhere. Indeed, the truth maybe, that he has nowhere else to go. This is BSY’s Custer-like last stand. Or is it?
There’s much to back that theory. The past eleven months has seen one attempt after another by the former chief minister to cut the earth from under Sadananda Gowda’s feet. And while all those plans have crumpled, this rising is the most, the farthest that any revolt has gone so far. Question is, will it go far enough?
Clearly, in the biggest crisis that has visited the party since Mr Gowda took over in August last year, the manner in which party trouble-shooter Dharmendra Pradhan handles this BSY-engineered putsch will affect the future of this deeply divided party and of course, the beleagured Sadananda Gowda government, buffeted at every step by one crisis after another.
Why would Ashoka Road send the peaceable Mr Pradhan, when the far more astute Arun Jaitley and Sushma Swaraj, even Venkaiah Naidu have a better feel for this state, remains a mystery.
Be that as it may, whether the BJP high command is willing to acknowledge it or not, the pressure that BSY is putting the government under, is an issue that needs to be tackled. By all accounts, the appearance of the mild-mannered Shettar from Hubli as the face of this Lingayat storm, was a huge surprise.
Most of the others in the BSY frontline – barring Shobha Karandlaje who is communing with the gods in the Himalayas and is a long-time BJPite – are newcomers to the saffron ranks, having been systematically sidelined by the father-son duo in the Janata Dal (S) or unable to curry favour in the Congress. These men owe their place in the Karnataka cabinet to BSY. And by all accounts, they have no future elsewhere either. Perhaps that accounts for the curious story doing the rounds on Saturday that some of the ministers who resigned have asked Mr Gowda not to forward their resignations! A certain minister is said to be particularly distraught…
But why now? Was BSY upset that the party bigwigs’ promise to effect leadership change by June 18 had not been kept? Would that explain how BSY may have persuaded Shettar into joining his battle, that it was now or never.
That with the government’s term of office barely more than a year, and given the complete paralysis that has this government in its grip, and the taint of corruption that soils the reputation of this saffron dispensation, it may not be able to realistically even win the next election. If Shettar wants his photograph up on the walls of the Vidhana Soudha, this was the time to set the ball in motion. The BJP top brass, he was told, would buy into the story. Shettar’s Lingayat lineage would give the BJP a half chance at turning the electorate their way – the farmer’s vote that was once BSY’s , and of course the Lingayats. And his links with mentor Ananth Kumar would help win Mr Advani over.
Except, Mr Advani’s deep unease over giving his blessing to removing someone like Sadananda Gowda, who may not be able to mobilize the caste vote but is clean as a whistle, was clear when he refused to heed the arguments put forth by the others. Specifically, that it would be better for the BJP government in Karnataka to be led by a Lingayat, any Lingayat, than a Gowda with rumoured links to the hated JD(S). A Gowda, under whose leadership, the party has albeit split like it never has before.
Truth be told, ‘Chief Minister’ Shettar too would be in the unenviable position – just as Mr Gowda is today – of having to say no to the many requests for favours that come from the BSY group, infuriating BSY and putting an end to that relationship to the detriment of the party.
The best way out of this maze is for all parties to retrace their steps, walk back to August last year, and maybe concede to BSY, give him what he had originally planned, during the ill-starred meeting at the Chancery, where plans had been aired for a deputy chief minister to offset the loss of a Lingayat and naming a Vokkaliga to the top chair..
Clearly, Pradhan is working to Mr Advani’s more rigid plan of no leadership change. He’s not even willing to concede the need for a cabinet reshuffle. And Delhi’s argument may be sound. Replace these Lingayats with another set of more than willing Lingayats waiting in the wings, and it will all probably just blow over until another ill-wind wafts in to Race Course Road.
Except, while alienating Yeddyurappa is a bad move, upsetting two Lingayat leaders badder still. Antagonising an entire community would be catastrophic.