Stakes high for Babu

[1]

The results of the bypolls to the 18 Assembly segment and Nellore Lok Sabha seat, which will be known by Friday afternoon, will decide the fate of the political parties in the state, especially the ruling Congress. Preparations for counting of votes were completed by Thursday and the first results are expected to be out around 11 am though the trends will be known much earlier.

According to Chief Electoral Officer Mr Bhanwar Lal, the first results to be announced will most likely be that of Narsapur given the lesser number of rounds of counting. One will know by Friday evening whether Kadapa MP Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress will be the state’s new political force. The future of Telugu Desam chief Mr N. Chandrababu Naidu will also become debatable within the party and outside if the Telugu Desam has a bad outing on Friday.

Meanwhile YSR Congress leaders are tense as anything less than 15-16 seats will give rival parties the chance to dismiss them as an emerging force and call it the people’s rejection of it over the alleged corrupt practices of Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy. For TRS chief Mr K. Chandrasekhar Rao, the results in Parkal, the only seat where the party contested, will be all-important because if the TRS loses, it will a “virtual visa” for Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy to enter the Telangana region.

Though the Congress government will not be in any immediate danger even if the party has a poor showing, party leaders are completely clueless when and how Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy might strike. Sources said that Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy has already started wooing legislators with benefits, both personal and political. Meanwhile Mr Chandrababu Naidu, who has suffered a series of defeats since 2004, is literally facing a political life and death situation for himself and his party.

“We can say that the electoral setbacks in Telangana were due to the party’s vacillating stand on the separate statehood issue but a repeat of this in Andhra and Rayalaseema regions will be a severe setback,” a senior party leader pointed out. Telugu Desam is already looking for excuses as was evident from MLA Mr Revanth Reddy alleging a Kiran-Jagan deal at the eleventh hour to mar Telugu Desam’s chances of winning.

Congress likely to lose as per exit polls
* Neither the Congress nor the Telugu Desam has won a single seat in bypolls since 2010 and experts say that it is not the question of the Congress losing seats but the margin by which it loses that will be the criteria for the party to plan any changes.

* If the Congress wins five to eight seats as per CM’s assessment, he will be seen as the next big leader in the Congress after YSR. In such a scenario, the YSR Congress will have a tough time keeping its flock from going back to the Congress and chances of other party MLAs joining it will be remote.

* If the Congress wins in Tirupati, chances of Mr Chiranjeevi — who had vacated the seat to go to the Rajya Sabha — getting a Union Cabinet berth will increase. Tirupati is the native district of the Chief Minister who will take it as a prestige issue.

* The results will also compel the Congress central leadership to announce its decision on Telangana soon as the party is bound to lose Parkal and a majority of the seats in the Seemandhra region as per the exit polls.