The aftermath of the June bypolls is the subject of discussion in political circles. Leaders of all the main parties — Congress, Telugu Desam, BJP and YSR Congress — have started predicting the fall of the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. While some say there will be a change of guard, others foresee imposition of Presidential rule. Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy has accused YSR Congress Chief Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy of attempts to destabilise his government. The present strength of the Congress party in the Assembly is 153 members, which will remain the same even after June 15, the day of counting for the 18 Assembly and Nellore Lok Sabha bypolls in a House of 294 members.
The Congress claims support of one Independent and the seven-member MIM. The majority mark for the ruling establishment would be 148 in the House of 294. The government will not fall on its own even on the assumption that the YSR Congress sweeps the bypo-lls, unless the CM submits his resignation owning moral responsibility. Whether the Kiran Kumar Reddy Cabinet also simultaneously recommends dissolution of the Assembly and recommends a midterm poll is purely a political decision and cannot happen without the approval of the Congress high command.
The Governor will have no option but to accept the Cabinet’s recommendation. He can dissolve the house and the Election Commission should conduct midterm polls within six months from the date of dissolution of the House, including taking into account the gap for convening the House within six months from the date of last adjournment.
The second scenario is that at the behest of the high command, the CM may be asked to resign and a new leader be sworn in. This is a time-tested option for the party and there are several such precedents. In case the Governor has some 'credible' information about horse-trading, and some of the MLAs are lured and influenced to cross the Floor etc, he can also recommend imposition of President’s Rule by putting the Assembly in suspended animation.
According to current presumptions, a sizeable number of legislators from the Congress will approach the Governor and announce withdrawal of support to the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. The options before the Governor would be, taking into account the SC judgments, the Justice Sirkaria Commission recommendations and the recommendations of the Governor's conferences -- that the Raj Bhavans shall not be the platform for testing the strength of governments and it shall be the domain of the Assembly only.
The Governor can ask the CM to prove his majority within a week or ten days. If a major party decides to abstain from voting and the government survives, the only option left to the ruling party would be to seek disqualification of those members who had gone to the Governor. This would lead to another round of bypolls. Even after this, the Governor can explore the possibility of another government if the numbers permit. Only after exhausting all the possibilities, he would recommend imposition of President's rule by duly placing the Assembly in suspended animation. The House would be dissolved only after Parliament approves President’s rule.