[1]Coming at a time when there is growing uncertainty about the continuation of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) arrangement after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, not only are regional players within the UPA and outside the ruling coalition testing the waters to see how far they can go, the BJP’s strategy is drawing attention to the rise of a new political flank.
It was Sushma Swaraj, leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, normally as much at ease in parliament as she is in front of a camera, who may have let out more than she should have when she blew the BJP’s strategy wide open.
Sushma baldly rejected the idea of Vice-President Hamid Ansari and Union finance minister Pranab Mukherjee as presidential candidates. Ansari, because he lacked the 'requisite stature' and Mukherjee for being a 'hardcore Congressman'.
This could be dismissed as par for the course, normal Congress bashing by a BJP leader. But when Sushma also said that if the Samajwadi Party, along with the Trinamul Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, proposed the nomination of a candidate like A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, the BJP could consider the suggestion 'positively', the red faces in Ashoka Road said it all. The JD(U)’s ire wasn’t the story at all.
In fact, alive to the threat of the BJP pulling in secular parties to its side, an alarmed Left is playing a quiet role in pushing for the ultimate Congress insider Pranab Mukherjee whom they had backed the last time around when Pratibha Patil won out, as well as current vice-president Hamid Ansari if Mukherjee’s candidature does not fly.
“Anyone but a BJP nominee,” a CPI (M) leader said. Their objection is not so much against backing a candidate picked by the BJP, as much as having a nominee behind whom the BJP and all the non-Congress parties will come together and back as their candidate for president.
The BJP, albeit, to a lesser extent than the Congress, clearly does not have the numbers on its own to pull off a victory for its own presidential nominee. The idea of bringing all non-Congress parties under its banner therefore, is designed to strengthen and swell the BJP’s stature.
Sources close to the Left parties say that the other BJP strategy is for it to back the Congress’ nominee for president – without being seen as having done a deal with the Congress in public — in return for having their man in as Vice-President; someone like Punjab chief minister Prakash Singh Badal. This, say Left insiders would give the BJP a bigger say in the Punjab where the Congress is already reeling from election reversals.
The Congress, unable to openly back old warhorse Pranab as yet, or the other name in the fray Ansari, until it has weighed all the pros and cons of each candidature, would like nothing less than an alliance of non-Congress parties to be formed at this juncture under the BJP banner.
With West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee steadily upping the ante, some insiders said that the Congress, given its own less than robust numbers is not averse to doing a deal with the BJP as long as it’s not tom-tommed.
Watching the Congress’ and knowing full well that the Sonia Gandhi led party is unlikely to give them time to collectively bargain in this election, are Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar, Prakash Singh Badal, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, M. Karunanidhi.
All of whom know that without regional parties the two national parties- Congress and the BJP — can do little as they cannot come together and resolve this issue.
The power of the regional parties, which have held national parties in check in key states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, and could unseat the Congress in AP, if the TDP,TRS and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party come together, cannot be taken lightly.
The BJP, clearly would like to foil the Congress plan to retain control over the posts of President and Vice President, with the help of regional parties. In an election year, it is vital that the resident of Rashtrapti Bhavan is a friend and a not a foe.
The Congress is confident that regional players, given their mercurial temperament cannot pose a threat to it. “They may be powerful in the states but they are weak at the national level, they cannot think beyond their caste and regional appeal,” was the view of insiders.
However, regional players who have for so long hitched their wagon to the UPA horse have also come to believe, that after ten continuous years in power, the Congress’ political space is shrinking across the country, and it would be to their advantage to look at other options to stay in power and give them a role at the national level.
The BJP, and its failure to emerge as an alternate to the Congress, regain lost ground does not make it a natural magnet for these smaller parties.
Meanwhile, the current debate on whether the next President should be 'political or apolitical', whether he should be 'a political heavyweight or lightweight,' from the 'minority or majority' community or from 'north or south' has become irrelevant because political parties field candidates in elections on criteria that is locally relevant.
In the end all politics is local. For instance, RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav proposed the name of Vice President Hamid Ansari after sensing that this would help him with the Muslim vote in Bihar.
Soon, the ruling Janata Dal (U) began taking Lalu Yadav’s line afer realising that Dr Abdul Kalam’s card will not help chief minister Nitish Kumar. More so, Mr Ansari is from north while Dr Kalam comes from south where Nitish has no presence to speak of.
The Congress’ uncharacteristic silence can probably be put down to a clampdown after the defeat in UP, Bihar, TN, Punjab, Karnataka Assemblies and developments in Andhra Pradesh, much of it being the result of leaders not being politic.
Also, the need of the hour is for the Congress to keep its allies together. They are helped, no doubt by the BJP’s failure to produce a liberal face like Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee without whom they have been unable to expand the NDA, and instead have ceded space to powerful sartraps like Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Jayalalithaa, Naveen Patnaik, Nitish Kumar and others.
As the guessing games continue within the UPA and supporting parties, insiders say that the Congress ‘dark horse’ in the Presidential election could well be Dr Karan Singh, whose stature as a former Maharaja in J&K could bring some movement on that front; this, even as the name of someone from the minority or backward castes other than those whose names are doing the rounds for the top post.
Kahaani Kalam ki
* Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam was chosen as the presidential candidate in 2002 not because he is a scientist but because he is a Muslim. Mamata Banerjee andMulayam Singh Yadav had suggested his name to the BJP in place of P.C. Alexander. And that worked well in 2002 Presidential election.
* K.R. Narayanan became the president because he was a dalit. Later prime minister V.P. Singh compelled the Congress party to field Narayanan who had received support from United Front in 1997.
* The incumbent Pratibha Patil was projected as the first women President. The Congress party had used the Left to ensure victory of its nominee Pratibha Patil in in 2007.
* All the three Presidents were ‘apolitical’ as compared to Neelam Sanjeev Reddy (1977 to 1982), Giani Zail Singh (1982-87) and Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma (1992-97).
* K.R. Narayanan, Dr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Ms Pratibha Patil occupied the highest office in the era of coalition governent at the Centre that began 16 years back.
* Dr Shankar Dayal Sharma becam President in 1992 when the Congress was heading a minority government.
* While Varahagiri Venkata Giri (1969-74) and Dr Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed (1974-77) became President on the basis of loyalty to Indira Gandhi, Dr Rajendra Prasad (1950-62), Dr S. Radhakrishnan (1962-67) and Dr Zakir Husain (1967-69) ) occupied the highest office purely on the basis of merit and sacrifice.
Nominees are...
Pranab Mukherjee, 77
Currently the finance minister, Government of India. He is considered to be an astute politician, who has vast experience in governance. He is being considered as the front runner in the run-up to the Presidential election to be held about two month from now.
Though , his own party, the Congress has some reservation on his name, he has emerged as the first choice of key ruling UPA allies like Trinamul Congress and Samajwadi Party.
Dr M. Hamid Ansari, 75
Currently the Vice-President of India. His name has been talked about in the same breath as Mr Mukherjee. The ruling Congress is said to want to elevate him to Rashtrapati Bhawan.
Left parties have indicated their support. But since SP chief Mulayam Singh and NCP chief Sharad Pawar have talked about the need for a political person to hold the highest post, his fate hangs in the balance.
APJ Abdul Kalam, 81
A former President of India, whose name was first floated by SP leader Shahid Siddiqui. But later SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav denied having decided on any name for the post.
In the meantime, the main opposition BJP threw its hat in the ring by supporting Dr Kalam. Congress has strong objections to a Kalam second tenure.
Meira Kumar, 67
She is currently the Speaker of the Lok Sabha. Being a Dalit, she was touted in a section of the Congress as the next President. But with the outgoing President being a woman, she was automatically ruled out.
Parkash Singh Badal, 85
The chief minister of Punjab had also entered the Presidential election fray, but he only has a remote chance as his party Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is part of opposition alliance NDA, and needs the support of the leading partner BJP. But with no positive vibes from the Saffron party, his candidature had a premature end.
P.A. Sangma, 65
A former Speaker of Lok Sabha and Chief Miniser of Meghalaya. He was co-founder of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
His name was floated by his party and attempts were made to bring TMC, SP and BSP on board, as he is a Catholic Christian. But the move fell flat as Congress rejected the move although he insists a tribal should be given a chance.
Dr Karan Singh, 81
A former Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir, he could be the dark horse. Considered close to the Congress bigwigs, the erudite former minister in Mrs Indira Gandhi’s cabinet has remained a trusted insider.
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