The last 10 days have seen an apparent ceasefire between the warring camps in the Karnataka BJP with the party high command putting off a decision on the leadership change till after the end of the Budget session. But the first week of April could be very different.
The last few days of March have already seen a flurry of activity with rival leaders throwing breakfast parties and lavish luncheons to demonstrate their relative strength and flex their political muscles. Governance has clearly taken a backseat.
The indecisiveness of the central BJP leadership seems responsible. Some months ago, in their desperation to see Mr Yedyurappa resign as Chief Minister, the central leaders held out a sop : If he were to be cleared of the charges against him, he would be reinstated.
Mr Yedyurappa reluctantly resigned and his hand-picked successor took over. His supporters, meanwhile continued to maintain that he would soon be back once the charges against him were dropped. The inexorable play of politics saw the new CM, Sadananda Gowda, gradually drift apart from his mentor.
When the High Court quashed the FIR against Mr Yedyurappa in an illegal mining case, the demand for his reinstatement became more intense.
But as the central leadership continued to hedge, Mr Yedyurappa and his supporters took the now common route of taking their enter flock to a resort on the eve of the Budget session, demanding his reinstatement.
But with April coming, the central leadership of the BJP will find it difficult to vacillate any further and will have to make a decision. Does the party reinstate Mr Yedyurappa, keeping in mind the numbers he has been able to muster within the legislature party?
His supporters have argued that it is not just about the support he enjoys and would have everyone believe that only he is capable of successfully leading the party campaign for the next assembly elections. They also contend that this is about honouring a promise made to him. The central leadership has to weigh the cost of bringing him back as against deciding not to.
Would it want to risk an open rebellion in the party by not re-instating him and see the inevitable split, causing the collapse of its only government in South India and prepare for an early poll? The party will need to calculate the political cost of reinstating Mr Yedyurappa and its ramifications both nationally and in the state.
Would his being brought back as Chief Minister, further divide an already faction- ridden party and help it stumble through the next one year with no more serious political earthquakes? As these inconvenient questions linger , does governance of the state matter? Apparently not.
(Dr Shastri is a political analyst who has been a keen observer of Karnataka politics for the past three decades. A professor of political science, he is pro-vice chancellor of Jain University)