Climate experts at the first South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF) meet comprising South Asian countries who met in Pune last week believe the monsoon this year could be less than normal. Countries attending the meet included Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, all of whom are dependent on the monsoon for their food production.
China which has traditionally been hosting Asia’s regional climate forum chose to stay away with some experts believing they are not happy to see India taking an initiative in this new climate effort.
Dr Ajit Tyagi, director general of India meteorology department, who has been insisting that India has seldom seen two droughts in succession, admits that a depression developing in the Bay of Bengal today can result in rain across the eastern coast and especially in Andhra Pradesh.
“This rain is likely to last over 3-5 days. It is too early to say so how this will impact the monsoon. With the El nino effect lessening we hope to have a normal monsoon,” Mr Tyagi admitted. Other experts present in Pune, using dynamic and coupled models, have predicted less than normal monsoon rains this year. A.K. Srivastava, a coordinator for the SACOF reported that monsoon in north India may be below average something, a fact reinforced by Kiyotoshi Takahashi, senior coordinator for climate modeling at the Japan Meteorological Agency in his submission.
FOCRA-II, Asia’s regional climate forum led by China, presented similar data in its meet held on last month in in Beijing.