If the BJP loses the Udupi-Chikmagalur Lok Sabha seat in the bypoll scheduled for March 18, it will have only itself to blame. The Opposition Congress is pinning its hopes on the neutral stance likely to be taken by the Lingayat community in the wake of the shabby treatment meted out to its mascot, B.S. Yeddyurappa to hand out a defeat to the ruling party. The rare unity of its senior leaders and the clean image of its candidate Jayaprakash Hegde, could also help the Congress score over its rival, say sources.
What could upset Congress calculations is the JD (S) which has put up a candidate and could destroy the prospects of Mr Hegde by taking away a substantial chunk of secular votes. Interestingly, the constituency has a caste combination where no community has the upper hand—the SC|STs number 2.2 lakh while the Bunts, the community to which Mr Hedge belongs, number around 1.7 lakh. The Muslims could also play a pivotal role as there are 1.8 lakh votes of the community in the constituency.
Geographically and culturally, the constituency is heterogenous with coffee plantation dominated Chikmagalur bearing no resemblence to Udupi, a coastal district. The only common factor which could be considered common to both districts, is the Hindutva wave, which helped the BJP make inroads into the then Congress bastions in the mid-nineties.
Poll managers have enough reason to be worried this time as BJP candidate D.V. Sadananda Gowda had won by a not so impressive margin of 30,000 votes in the 2009 polls. With no BSY to swing the Lingayat votes in his favour, party candidate Sunil Kumar will have to look upto the RSS which is pretty strong in this region to counter the Congress juggernaut.
In Assembly segments in Chikmagalur like Mudigere, JD(S) candidate S.L. Boje Gowda who is a local resident, is sure to harm the prospects of the Congress by weaning away secular votes. If he gets more than a lakh votes, the Congress could be in danger of losing the seat, said sources.
Mr Hegde’s clean image and local issues like the displacement of people because of Bhadra tiger reserve, could cost the BJP dear in Mudigere and Sringeri Assembly constituencies. The party will have to depend on the developmental works carried out by its four MLAs in the district and the popularity of its social security schemes, to carve out a win. As for Udupi, the Billavas who number 1.88 lakh, have taken sides with BJP in all four constituencies, which could make the Bunts vote for the Congress
In Kapu constituency, the Congress is likely to gain from the Udupi Power Corporation Limited (UPCL) fiasco with the affected voters including fishermen likely to support it.