Muslim vote to dominate UP last phase

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The month-and-a-half-long election process in Uttar Pradesh will come to a close with the seventh and final phase of polling Saturday.

Sixty Assembly seats, spread over 10 districts, will vote in the state’s Rohilkhand region, where a majority of constituencies are dominated by Muslims.

The 10 districts that will vote on Saturday are Bijnore, Moradabad, Bhim Nagar, Rampur, J.P. Nagar, Badaun, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur and Lakhimpur.

Of these, Rampur has a 51 per cent Muslim population, while Moradabad, Bhim Nagar, J.P. Nagar and Bijnore have Muslim populations ranging between 36 to 43 per cent. The other districts — Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur and Lakhimpur — also have sizeable Muslim voters.

The party that gets the maximum Muslim support will emerge winner in this phase.

In 2007, the Bahujan Samaj Party won 27 seats (of the 57 seats in this phase then), while the Samajwadis got 17 seats, the BJP nine and the Congress just one seat. Mafia don D.P. Yadav’s Rashtriya Parivartan Dal had won two seats.

The Congress’ emergence this time is worrying both the BSP and SP since both parties were banking on Muslim support in Rohilkhand. The silence of Muslim voters in this phase is intriguing. For stalwarts like Azam Khan, contesting on a Samajwadi symbol from his traditional Rampur base, this election will be no cakewalk.

The BSP faces the threat of internal sabotage from dissidents and rebels, while D.P. Yadav is trying to erode the Samajwadis’ Yadav vote base by highlighting his 'humiliation' by SP leaders.

Four Congress MPs — Mohammed Azharuddin, Jitin Prasada, Zafar Ali Naqvi and Praveen Aron — will be testing the waters here. If they fail to get Congress candidates elected in their areas, it could be tough going for them in the next Lok Sabha elections.