With elections inching towards an end in Uttar Pradesh, the betting season has begun in right earnest. For the first time ever, the bookies are betting heavily on a hung Assembly and the Presi-dent’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh.
According to sources in the “satta” business, the stakes are up to Rs 1.50 for a majority government while the bets for a hung Assembly are pegged around 20 paisa which means that anyone who bets on hung assembly gets Rs 1.20 for every rupee he invests — a case of minimum risk and minimum gain.
Those that bet on a majority government will get Rs 2.50 for every rupee invested if any party gets a majority on its own.
According to a bookie, Chander, (name changed on request) who runs the “satta” business from his electronics goods’ shop, prospects of a hung Assembly have grown stronger after the third phase of elections when it became clear that no party was getting a comfortable majority.
When the Congress categorically declared that it would not support any other party for government formation, the shadow of the President’s Rule started looming large.
The “satta” market, incidentally, predicts a washout for the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party in these elections. The bookies are ready to pay 40 paisa if the BSP crosses the 110 seat mark and for those willing to bet on a majority for the BSP, the rate is 55 paisa.
Explaining the trend, Chander says that the only visible factor in the on-going Assembly elections is a strong wave against the BSP which, he says, led to a surge in the negative voting pattern.
“As of now the bets are against the BSP but we expect the peg to go higher as the BSP slips down further. The voter turnout in each phase till now indicates bad news for the BSP,” he says.
The bookie business, meanwhile, is disappointing for the Samajwadi Party also. Bets are on at 26 paisa for 125 seats for the Samajwadi Party which means that the investor will get an additional 25 paisa on every rupee that he bets on SP. For 150 seats for the Samajwadi Party, the rate is 40 paisa.
Shyam Sunder, another bookie, says that the battle for supremacy within the Samajwadi Party, the acrimonious statements issued by Azam Khan and the reports about Mulayam Singh Yadav’s health, has led to a decline in the party’s popularity graph.
“About four months back, the SP was poised for a major comeback and we expected it to get a comfortable majority but during the past few weeks, the SP has lost ground while the Congress has gained the same.
The Congress rate is also 25 paisa on 70 seats,” he said and added that the over-assertion of the Muslim reservation issue has turned the hardcore Hindu voters away from the Congress.
The BJP has got a rate of 26 paisa for 70 seats — a sudden rise in stocks after the first phase when the party got a rate of 25 paisa for 55 seats.
The party is not yet a frontrunner in the UP polls but bookies are confident that the ground situation has changed in BJP’s favor after the first two phases.
ENDS/