With elections inching towards the end in Uttar Pradesh, the betting season has begun in right earnest.
For the first time ever, the bookies are betting heavily on a hung Assembly and the President’s Rule in Uttar Pradesh.
According to sources in the “satta” business, the stakes are up to Rs 1.50 for a majority government while the bets for a hung Assembly are pegged around 20 paisa which means that anyone who bets on hung assembly gets Rs 1.20 for every rupee he invests — a case of minimum risk and minimum gain.
Those that bet on a majority government will get Rs 2.50 for every rupee invested if any party gets a majority on its own.
According to a bookie, Chander, (name changed on request) who runs the “satta” business from his electronics goods’ shop, prospects of a hung Assembly have grown stronger after the third phase of elections when it became clear that no party was getting a comfortable majority.
When the Congress categorically declared that it would not support any other party for government formation, the shadow of the President’s Rule started looming large.
The “satta” market, incidentally, predicts a washout for the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party in these elections. The bookies are ready to pay 40 paisa if the BSP crosses the 110 seat mark and for those willing to bet on a majority for the BSP, the rate is 55 paisa.
Explaining the trend, Chander says that the only visible factor in the on-going Assembly elections is a strong wave against the BSP which, he says, led to a surge in the negative voting pattern. “As of now the bets are against the BSP but we expect the peg to go higher as the BSP slips down further. The voter turnout in each phase till now indicates bad news for the BSP,” he says.