[1]The RSS assessment of the coming Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab differs from that of the BJP. While the BJP is hopeful of taking its tally in politically important state of UP from current figure of 48 (it had won 51 Assembly seats in 2007 but lost three seats in bypolls) to anywhere between 100 to 110, the RSS calculations shows the saffron party will definitely gain in this state but the figure will not exceed 70-75.
While OBC votes will play an important role in BJP’s expected gains as compared to last Assembly polls, the section of Brahmin and Banias (considered saffron party’s traditional votebank) voters, which had shifted towards Mayawati’s BSP last time, are expected to tilt back to BJP. The party is wooing OBC’s in a big way in the state and is hoping that Congress-led UPA’s decision giving 4.5 per cent sub-quota from within 27 per cent OBC quota, will help it by getting the “revenge votes” of the community.
In BJP-ruled state of Uttarakhand, RSS has predicted its affiliate political outfit to win 27-30 seats, a decrease from 34 which the party got in the last Assembly polls. Anti-incumbency and recent corruption charges against the government has dented party’s prospects in the hill state. Contrary to RSS’s assessment, BJP’s internal surveys have predicted comfortable majority. The RSS’s advise to the party is win over its rebel leaders, who will dent party’s vote share.
In NDA-ruled Punjab, anti-incumbency factor is looming large and BJP’s share is drastically decreasing from last Assembly polls. The BJP had won 19 Assembly seats (out of 23 contested) in the last Assembly polls in the state.
However, RSS assessment shows the figure this time is unlikely to touch the two digit mark.
The major factors for this, the RSS assessment says, are corruption and anti-incumbency factor of the SAD-BJP government.
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