The RSS assessment of the coming assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab, differs from that of the BJP.
While the BJP is hopeful of taking its tally in the politically important state of UP from the current figure of 48 to anywhere between 100 to 110, the RSS calculations show the saffron party will definitely gain in this state but the figure will not exceed 70-75.
BJP had won 51 assembly seats in 2007 but lost three seats in bypolls.
While OBC votes will play an important role in the BJP’s expected gains as compared to the last assembly polls, the section of Brahmin and Bania (considered saffron party’s traditional votebank) voters, which had shifted towards Mayawati’s BSP last time, are expected to tilt back to the BJP.
The party is wooing OBCs in a big way in the state and is hoping that the Congress-led UPA’s decision giving 4.5 per cent sub-quota from within 27 per cent OBC quota will help it by getting the “revenge votes” of the community.
In the BJP-ruled state of Uttarakhand, the RSS has predicted its affiliate political outfit would win 27-30 seats, a decrease from 34 which the party got in the last assembly polls. Anti-incumbency factor and recent corruption charges against the government had dented party’s prospects in the hill state.
Contrary to the RSS’s assessment, the BJP’s internal surveys have predicted a comfortable majority. The RSS’s advise to the party is to win over its rebel leaders, who will dent the party’s vote share.
In Punjab, the RSS assessment shows the figure may not touch the two digit mark. The BJP had won 19 seats (out of the 23 contested) in the last polls in the state.
The major factors for this are the corruption and anti-incumbency factor of the SAD-BJP government.