In bad news for the ruling BSP in Uttar Pradesh, the state intelligence has conveyed to chief minister Mayawati that her party would at best get 160 seats, well short of the magic figure of 203 seats in the 403-strong state Assembly.
The state intelligence is also learnt to have sounded the ruling dispensation that the successful social engineering of 2007 is no more intact in the state.
Sources said that the state intelligence on the basis of inputs collected from all parts of the state has cautioned the ruling BSP, that the party should win back the support of the upper caste for any chance to come back in power.
However, if the feedback given by the intelligence was to be believed, Uttar Pradesh is headed for a clear hung Assembly, with no party getting the magic figure of 203 to form a government in the state on its own. It has also been stated, sources said, that the ruling BSP should not count on Muslim support, as the community vote would most likely split, with other contenders being the Samajwadi Party, which is wooing minority support with the promise of 18 per cent reservation in the government jobs in the state, and the Congress.
The BSP appears to be losing in the western Uttar Pradesh where the party had emerged as the leading political party in the 2007 state elections, as the SP is said to be vying for the minority vote base along with the Congress-RLD alliance in the region.
The state intelligence is learnt to have sounded the BSP supremo, that she would have to launch an aggressive poll campaign to highlight achievements of her government and go to the poll with development plank. However, the BSP needs to fight against the negative perception against the party following sacking of a large number of state ministers, after they were indicted by the lokayukta, the intelligence is learnt to have suggested.
It has also been pointed that there is a significant chunk of floating voters in the state, which are not yet decided and hence they should be won over.