Overwhelmed by the prospect of having to face byelections, more legislators left the camp of YSR Congress leader Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, refusing to vote against the government during Monday’s vote on the Telugu Desam-sponsored no-confidence motion.
Mr Katasani Rambhupal Reddy and Mr C. Adinarayana Reddy attended the meeting called by Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy on Saturday and told him to his face that they could not follow his diktat of voting against the government. Later, Ms Kunja Satyavati returned to the Congress camp, leaving just 20 MLAs in the rebel camp. More legislators could return to the parent party by the time the vote is taken up.
The biggest fear of the legislators is that if they defy the party whip and vote against the government, they will be disqualified and this will lead to byelections.
The Congress and the Telugu Desam will be waiting for just such an opportunity to squeeze the Jagan group between their combined might. Two main parties of the state could indulge in a bit of quiet match-fixing to defeat the Jagan group candidates. Both the parties, for their own reasons, are eager to cut Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy down to size.
Besides, there is no guarantee that in the unlikely event of the Congress losing the no-trust vote — the government has the numbers to pull through — there will be a mid-term election. The Congress as the largest group can still stake claim as the largest group if it ever comes to that.
The Jagan group is telling its MLAs that the defeat of the government would mean mid-term elections. That is not true.
The only result of voting against the government is a byelection, something that the Jagan group is dreading despite the claims of its leader. And most of his MLAs do not believe Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy’s assurance of arranging finances and ensuring their victory in the bypolls. His victory at Kadapa notwithstanding, the situation has changed with Mr Jagan Mohan Reddy getting embroiled in corruption cases which has taken the sheen off the rebel image.
The Congress could also play on their sentiments. How can they vote against a government that was set up by Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy, the Congress is asking. Besides, TD chief N. Chandrababu Naidu is unsparing in his criticism of YSR. Can the Jagan group side with such a party and still hope to win, is the question being asked.