The death of civil supplies minister T.M. Jacob has made the Oommen Chandy ministry’s situation more tenuous as its majority in 141-member Assembly has slipped to 72, including the Speaker and the nominated Anglo-Indian member.
UDF strategists will have to decide on a suitable successor as the Left would be on an overdrive, preparing for the impending by-election in Piravom Assembly constituency.
It had lost the seat to Jacob by a margin of 157 votes in the Assembly polls.
The reduced strength in the House has made the job of UDF floor managers more strenuous, especially the passage of finance bills. A minority vote on a finance bill is sudden death for the ministry.
The LDF, with 68 members, still has ambitions of regaining power, by working on contradictions within the ruling combine.
The LDF strategy has been to put the government on the mat on every possible issue and this strategy has paid off, with a minister and the government chief whip succumbing to opposition provocations and putting themselves on the firing line.
On the other side, a few UDF leaders pin hopes on the two-member NCP, which is part of the LDF. They hope the NCP legislature party leader Thomas Chandy, would bail out the government.
But that could prove too costly for Chandy as the anti-defection law does not recognise a split. To avoid disqualification, splitters should have two-third strength.
In the two-member NCP, neither member can pull out singly. Their destinies are twinned. This make the UDF strategy skewed and puts it on slippery course for the rest of the term.