Karnataka Assembly Speaker K.G. Bopaiah’s ruling on the plea to disqualify 16 rebel BJP and Independent MLAs is likely to decide the future of the first BJP government in South India on Monday when chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa moves a confidence motion in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly.
Mr Yeddyurappa is due to move the confidence motion at 10 am and in all probability his fate will be decided by noon. Both the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress and JD(S) are preparing for a do-or-die battle in the House, which is likely to witness acrimonious exchanges and pandemonium in the course of the debate.
The big question is this: Can Mr Yeddyurappa succeed as he did when he moved a confidence motion in June 2008, soon after the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the May 2008 polls? He had also moved a confidence motion on November 17, 2007, but halfway through the debate had rushed to Raj Bhavan and tendered his resignation after realising that the JD(S), his then coalition partner, would not support him on the floor of the House.
Highly-placed BJP sources maintained that their strategy was to win the trust vote at any cost without thinking of the consequences that could follow. To achieve this, the party in all probability is likely to press for the disqualification of the dissident MLAs or at least for their suspension from the House so that they are not able to vote. The Speaker, who heard both sides (loyal BJP legislators and representatives of BJP dissidents) on Sunday evening, has reserved his judgment. Sources in the BJP said the Speaker might announce his decision only hours before the proceedings begin in the Assembly.
The Speaker had served showcause notices on 13 BJP MLAs on October 7 and five Independents on October 9. Later, the notices served on excise minister M.P. Renukacharya and Narasimha Nayak (Raju Gowda) were withdrawn. The BJP sources said if the 16 MLAs — 11 BJP and five Independents — are suspended, the votes required to win the trust vote will come down from the current 113 to 105 in a 224-member House. “We are confident of reaching the magic figure,” they asserted.
What could tilt the scales in favour of the Opposition is a letter sent by state governor H.R. Bhardwaj to Mr Bopaiah on Sunday afternoon requesting him not to change the configuration of the Assembly till the proceedings are over on Monday. He told the Speaker clearly that he would not accept the result of the trust vote if the present composition of the Assembly is disturbed.
The BJP suspects that the governor could be preparing the ground for dismissing Mr Yeddyurappa as the only way the government could survive is by ensuring that the rebels are disqualified. In a similar situation in Meghalaya a year ago, governor R.S. Moosahary had recommended the dismissal of the state government, which was later accepted by the Centre. Ignoring the governor’s directive, the Speaker declared as invalid the votes of dissidents and exercised his vote to break a tie helping the NCP-led Meghalaya Progressive Alliance government to win a confidence vote in the Assembly.
“In view of the letter from the governor to the Speaker, we feel that he may keep the Assembly under suspended animation after recommending the dismissal of the government. So why should we give an opportunity to the Opposition to defeat the confidence motion? We will do everything possible to get the rebels suspended,” the source said.
The Janata Dal(S), which has been spearheading the campaign against Mr Yeddyurappa, however, has a different gameplan up in its sleeve, said sources. “Even if these MLAs are suspended, the motion will be defeated. Not less than 10 BJP MLAs, who are with the ruling party now, will switch over to the dissident camp once they enter the precincts of the House. We have a blueprint ready which will ensure that the government does not win the trust vote,” JD(S) sources said.
The political battle in the Assembly may spill over into the streets where thousands of party workers will be awaiting the outcome of the trust vote with bated breath. The state police is taking no chances and has launched a drive across Karnataka to detain criminal elements associated with various parties.