Chennai is sitting on a swine flu volcano waiting to erupt.

While A(H1N1) virus has infected 29 people in the state, leaving one 74 year old man dead, public health experts are apprehensive about the virulent activity of the virus despite soaring summer mercury and dry climes.

“The swine flu virus is believed to thrive only in wet weather and low temperatures. Viruses mutate every year, and A(H1N1) virus has undergone an antigenic shift to be able to survive in such warm weather. As a result, the public will also have lowered immunity against this changed strain. And so everybody needs to be on the alert,” says Dr S. Elango, vice president of Indian Public Health Association.

The situation in Tamil Nadu looks grim—most of the people infected have had no travel history, implying that the virus is very much prevalent in the state. And it does not appear as if the health department has control over preventing and treating the influenza.

At a press conference on Saturday, state health minister V.S. Vijay announced that the government had procured 25,000 doses of swine flu vaccine from the Central government to immunize government doctors and nurses across Chennai and Coimbatore.

However, the minister, a doctor himself, admitted that the efficacy of the vaccination that had been manufactured to provide immunity against the original strain of the virus that caused the first epidemic in 2009, was questionable.

“The virus has mutated and we cannot be sure if this vaccine has any immunising effect against it now; no such research is available. However, it is our duty to vaccinate at least the health workers and relatives of patients who have been exposed to the infection,” the minister said, stressing that there was no need for mass vaccination of the public since cases of A(H1N1) influenza were as of now only ‘sporadic’ and not ‘epidemic’.

H1N1 virus defies summer heat, expect bad times

State health officials may be trying their best to convince us that all is well , but A(H1N1) virus is just starting out, say experts who believe that the worst is yet to come.

“It’s true that there has been only one death so far, and the victim was an elderly person. We should be prepared for worse as the swine flu virus is at its most virulent during the wet season, which is just a few months away,” says a senior virologist, pointing out that the government neither has an effective vaccine to provide protection against the disease, nor the monitoring capacity to stop the spread of transmission within the state.

“The most important step is to trace the contacts of the infected people and give them prophylactic treatment. The health staff should confirm the addresses of patients and ask for the police’s help when an admitted patient ‘runs’ away,” he adds.

“What use is surveillance at airports and railway stations if patients who test positive for the influenza cannot be admitted and treated safely,” he asks.

Health minister V. S. Vijay counters that media hype over the infection has created a scare among patients, forcing them to run away from hospitals.

“Creating a panic among the people is detrimental as this fear would affect the natural resistance provided by the body. Those who are healthy and have good immunity need not worry about contracting swine flu. This virus only attacks people with lowered resistance like infants, elderly people, diabetics and pregnant women,” Dr Vijay says confidently.

“We do not know how effective the vaccine is. The best way forward is to eat plenty of fruits and vegetables and exercise regularly to build your own immunity,” he said.

However, the minister does not seem to realize that the so-called high risk group — babies and pregnant women, diabetics, people with TB and HIV, and the elderly — comprises a huge chunk of Tamil Nadu’s population.

All that can be done

* Symptoms: fever, headache, cough and running nose. Diarrhea and difficulty in breathing are also sometimes experienced.

* The most infective stage of A(H1N1) is one day before the symptoms appear, and four days afterwards.

* If the fever and cough persist for more than two days, consult a doctor.

* Cover your nose and mouth while coughing and sneezing.

* If you do not have a tissue, cough into the crook of your elbow and not into your palm.

* Carry a bottle of hand-sanitizer to disinfect your hands.

* Do not kiss babies and children.

* If you are sick with flu-like systems, stay at home , take rest and avoid air conditioned rooms .