IMD downgrades earlier monsoon forecast
The India Meteorolgical Department (IMD) has been forced to downgrade its earlier forecast on the monsoon by admitting that there will be less rains this year.
The IMD, however, continues to play it safe by insisting that India’s crucial monsoon will be normal this year but with less heavier rains than what they had predicted in the April forecast. “Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole will be 96 per cent of the long period average,” IMD director-general Laxman Singh Rathore said as opposed to a 99 per cent long-term average.
The monsoon rains are crucial for farmers especially since around 60 per cent of India’s arable land remains rain fed. Rains in July this year are likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA) while the rainfall in August has been forecast to be 96 per cent of the LPA.
A normal monsoon means rainfall between 96-104 per cent of a 50-year average rains during the four-month season from June to September. The LPA has been pegged at 89 cm.
But already, farmers across Punjab, Haryana and Uttarakhand are expressing concern at the lack of pre-monsoon showers which will adversely affect their rice planting. The IMP has admitted in its update issue on Friday that India’s granary states can expect a below-normal rainfall at 93 per cent of the IPA. Already, the monsoon showers were four days behind schedule in Kerala and have yet to pick up in strengtrh, largely because of disturbances over the Pacific region which have adversely affect the monsoon winds.
Minister of agriculture Sharad Pawar also admitted that while there was a delay in the monsoon, it was too early to say whether it will adversely affect crops.
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