“As far as Uttar Pradesh is concerned, the Congress will now prove a game-changer in the state. The party is all set for a revival after almost 22 years and Mr Rahul Gandhi’s vigorous campaign in UP has changed the scenario for the Congress. Besides, people are fed up with the communal and casteist politics of the BJP, the BSP and SP that have given governments mired in corruption. The youth, in particular, want a development oriented government and are turning towards the Congress” — Rita Bahuguna Joshi, UPCC president.
There’s little question that the seven-phase polling in the Hindi heartland state of Uttar Pradesh is where all eyes will be focused as campaigning begins in earnest in the five poll bound states of UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur.
And that while the four others, barring a few glitches may be all but a foregone conclusion, polls in UP will be the litmus test for the Gandhi scion Rahul Gandhi. His political legitimacy will rest on whether he will be able to pull the Congress’ chestnuts out of the fire, as a precursor to whether he can do the same in the general elections that must follow.Clearly, the dogged persistence with which Team Rahul has targeted the Dalits, the OBCs, SCs and STs is lost on no-one. Least of all, UP chief minister Mayawati, whose largely Dalit following had stayed fiercely loyal to ‘behenji’ until now, as she populated the state capital with her statues and her hubris.
The Election Commission has now ordered the outsize statues covered. Coming on top of her panicked sacking of ‘corrupt’ ministers, only weeks before campaigning begins for the 403 seats up for grabs, the signals are clear - the Dalit queen’s confidence on being able to carry the once committed Dalits with her has been dented; her carefully crafted vote bank which roped in the upper caste Brahmin vote is close to imploding as the Brahmins look set to migrate to the Congress; and she remains worried that the charges of corruption being laid at her door could impact her chances of re-election.
For the first time ever, her family is in the line of fire. The BJP has launched a massive campaign against her brother Anand Kumar for allegedly floating fake firms in the NCR region, while two sitting BSP MLAs Shekhar Tripathi and Anand Sen Yadav have been convicted in murder cases, and five ministers lost their berths following an inquiry by the state Lokayukta who received complaints of corruption against 22 ministers and 28 MLAs.The farmers’ agitation in Bhatta Parsaul, and the perception of state apathy during a series of train and bus accidents have not helped.Anti-incumbency, therefore, is only one factor.
A silent internal revolt could sabotage the prospects of BSP candidates. Mayawati has cut the tickets of more than 110 candidates after they campaigned for themselves over the six months. Denial of tickets to ministers at the last moment is leading to a virtual exodus from the party, weakening its grass-roots. The only brownie points she may garner is her promise to divide the state into four. So will Mayawati cede electoral space to the BJP, the Congress or the SP?
By all accounts, the BJP has scored a self-goal with the induction of tainted BSP minister Babu Lal Kushwaha, signaling it is willing to turn a blind eye to corruption as long as it suits them electorally. As Kushwaha wields considerable influence among his community, the BJP can hope to win half a dozen seats in Bundelkhand. Clearly, it is also banking on three OBC players to bring in the OBC vote - Vinay Katiyar , a Kurmi, with a vote bank of 4-5 %, Uma Bharati, a Lodh with 3-4 % as well as Kushawaha, whose community commands 9 % of the vote.Whether it will be able to retain the 50 assembly berths it already has or increase its tally to the 80 seats that is part of its gameplan is to be seen. Certainly it does not see UP as a state that it can win.
Having burnt its fingers with Mayawati before, it wants no post poll tie up with the BSP. “We will remain in the Opposition as there’s no way we can come to power,” a BJP leader candidly admitted. Advantage Mulayam? With the ailing Mulayam Singh Yadav virtually handing over the reins of the Samajwadi Party to fresh-faced Akhilesh, the Congress which has banked on its own youth icon Rahul, may find some of the earth being cut from under its feet. All indicators are that it will be forced to look at a post-poll arrangement with a Samajwadi Party that could be on the ascendant in the face of a BSP implosion, despite the SP’s own internal divide between oldies and newcomers which led to bad blood over the distribution over tickets and the exit of veteran Mohan Singh.
Nevertheless, if the Samajwadi Party steps up to the plate and manages to woo its core Muslim-Yadav voter back to its fold, it will no doubt drive a hard bargain. But it is worried, that it no longer has a complete hold over its slipping Muslim vote bank. “While the BSP, SP and BJP has a block of committed voters from their vote banks, to cross or touch the 200 mark one needs an additional block as Mayawati did in 2007 when she brought in the Brahmins. If SP is working to get their Muslim vote bank back, which is gravitating towards the Congress, the BJP is wooing the OBCs. That is the reason, why we played the Kushwaha card, tainted though it was,” BJP insiders said, while admitting at the same time that it was both a risk and a gamble.