It is unlikely that the new leadership of the party will do much to rock the basic model of development and political control underlined by Deng Xiaoping in 1979
The economic rise of China, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China pursuing a vigorous model of state capitalism relying heavily on an export-led model of growth, has made millions of people reasonably well off in a relatively short period even if China remains a developing country.
As such, it is unlikely that the new leadership of the party (and hence the country) that was named along expected lines on Thursday at the weeklong session of the National People’s Congress, will do much to rock the basic model of development — and political control — that was underlined by Deng Xiaoping in 1979.
Still, incoming general secretary Xi Jinping will need to make suitable adjustments. The slowdown in the West could dampen China’s export potential, giving domestic consumption greater salience. This can be done either by enriching the existing rich and exacerbating the worrying inequality gap that the Communist Party now openly talks about, or by extending a modicum of economic well-being to the north and the west of the giant country.
At any rate, the stability of the system must be uppermost on the minds of the new leaders — Mr Xi and the other six members of the standing committee of the CPCs politburo — thrown up at the 18th party congress. Weiwen, or ensuring stability through an elaborate police system, of the old variety may need some modification. Clashes between ordinary peasants and officials are said to have touched 150,000 a year now, and have developed on account of nepotism, corruption, and land grab by party officials in a period of rising urbanisation. Part of the solution may lie in giving rural people a stake in the new ventures, and creating a new class of petty rural capitalists in addition to the existing urban ones.
Mr Xi, in his capacity as the new general secretary, has already been named head of the powerful Central Military Commission because his predecessor Hu Jintao, whose 10 years were marked by scandals and corruption, couldn’t hold out as CMC chairman till 2014. Mr Xi is to be named the country’s President in March 2013. His Prime Minister will be Li Keqiang, broadly regarded as a political liberal. But such labels are quite irrelevant in a Communist setup.
It will be keenly watched whether the new leadership creates trouble for neighbours and ethnic minorities through a more “nationalist” foreign and defence policy. In the medium term, the need to stabilise the domestic front could, however, claim greater attention.
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