UPA-2 is likely to face a tough time
As Parliament resumed Monday after the customary month-long recess of the Budget Session, the uncertainties of coalition politics were staring UPA-2 in the face, irrespective of whether the government’s downfall comes about as a consequence. In the past, NDA governments led by Atal Behari Vajpayee, a political stalwart, have been hurt by the fickle nature of coalition allies. In the case of UPA-2, however, in contrast with UPA-1, matters are compounded by several scams coming to light.
The Opposition parties, disgruntled allies in the ruling coalition, and former allies who quit in the belief that a better future would await them if they opted out of the ruling group, cannot but seek to extract any mileage that they can from the government’s present discomfiture.
The first charge on the government is to ensure that the Finance Bill, which gives effect to the Budget proposals, is passed. On current political reckoning, it is thought that this should not pose a major problem. The BJP, the main Opposition party, is not in favour of a national election being held right now. But it will be interesting to see if the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party, which lend “outside support” to the government, vote with it in the event a cut motion is moved. The defeat of the government on such a motion signifies its ejection from office.
Naturally, we should expect much political play in the lead-up to the passage of the Finance Bill. The UPA-2’s floor managers will need to humour not only the SP and BSP, but also DMK and Trinamul Congress (which at various times left the ruling combine) even if there is something to the belief that none of them seeks premature elections.
It became quite clear at the meeting Rajya Sabha chairman Hamid Ansari had with leaders of all parties on Sunday, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh present, to prepare for smooth functioning of the Upper House that the government’s opponents will not allow it any respite in the remainder of the Budget Session. The aim of obstructions would be to prevent UPA-2 from passing legislation from which it may derive political benefit, such as the Food Security Act. At the same time, if an early election does not suit the Opposition, the government may linger on without being effective on the legislative front unless it does political deals with some parties. This is thus a tricky phase in the political calendar. The Karnataka Assembly election in early May should also have an effect on the parliamentary behaviour of parties in the Monsoon Session in July.
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