If India can push for the emergence of a formulation directed to ending the violence in Syria, it could help ease the dangerous situation in West Asia
As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh flies out to Tehran to attend the 16th nonaligned summit on Tuesday, the uppermost concern he will have is to reassure Iran of continuing bilateral relations on an even keel (India’s Afghanistan policy is tied to this in critical ways) even as India abides by United Nations sanctions against Tehran on the question of that country’s disputed nuclear programme.
Much would, therefore, hinge on the quality of the Prime Minister’s conversations with the Iranian leadership.
NAM has lost its political élan in the post-Soviet world. Therefore, there is little likelihood of the Tehran summit agreeing on a grand thrust on key international or regional questions, which in the past often signalled the expression of discontent against key American policies across regional theatres. However, there would still be broad convergence among the developing countries’ bloc of 120 nations on issues pertaining to the international economy and world trade. These in any case find frequent articulation at forums such as the G-20 and the Doha Round, at which the stance of Russia and China, which are not part of NAM, often overlap with those of the nonaligned forum.
Nevertheless, it is the problem of restoring peace in Syria, which in the recent past has attracted greater attention than any other, including the historical Israeli-Palestinian crisis, that may be expected to be in focus at the summit. NAM is deeply divided on this issue, with the leading Arab countries seeking the ouster of the Bashar al-Assad regime, which they view as a proxy for Shia Iran to which the Sunni powers are bitterly opposed. India is mindful of its long-term interests in the Gulf Arab states, where over six million Indian nationals earn their livelihood. And yet, it has not sought the ouster of the Asaad regime, which is facing an insurrection backed with weapons by the United States and the West, as well as the Gulf Arabs.
This gives New Delhi some leeway with Tehran. If India can push for the emergence of a formulation even as an opening gambit directed to ending the violence in Syria (no easy task after the UN mission led by former Secretary-General Kofi Annan failed), it could help ease the dangerous situation in West Asia, which could even lean towards a wider conflagration if the Syrian violence does not speedily abate. India could coordinate with a country like Egypt in such an effort and urge Iran, the leading Gulf players and the US to scale back their maximalist expectations. Afghanistan, with whose fate the US is deeply concerned after its troops withdraw in 2014, can be brought into the peace calculus. Meaningful moves on Syria should define the Tehran summit.
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