Maldives crisis is a test for India
Former Maldives President Mohammed Nasheed, who was dislodged a year ago in what appeared to be a soft coup behind which were the country’s Islamist forces and influential sections of the police and military establishment, dashed into the Indian high commission on Wednesday to evade arrest and sought refuge. This was granted, but the mission was taken by surprise, just as it had been when Mr Nasheed was ousted. This shows that Indian diplomatic representatives in Male continue to be behind the curve.
Frankly, this is surprising. Indian influence in Male — and not just with those who might be in power — should have been self-evident. But it is not although New Delhi shores up the Maldives with aid in many sectors, takes care of its debt, helps balance its budget, and assists with military communication. In the past, it has also protected the tiny country of hundreds of islands when foreign buccaneers have tried to take it over.
Mr Nasheed has made a smart move. India was in no position to deny sanctuary to the former President who is the father of democracy in his country and was deposed by his opponents and ambitious colleagues. Having given him shelter, it is automatically involved in the politics surrounding Mr Nasheed, whether this is to its liking or not.
New Delhi has rightly taken the view that any move to arrest the former leader and prevent him from contesting the election due later this year will call the fairness of the election into question. Should that turn out to be the case, the Maldives could be denied international aid from democratic quarters. But Male might be inclined to worry less about this aspect than might have been the case before. The reason is Beijing’s wooing of the Maldives, especially in the past year, the time period that coincides with the forced ejection of Mr Nasheed from the presidency.
How India handles the Maldives affair is doubtless being watched in the region. The other South Asian countries will take away their own lesson about Indian capabilities from this case. New Delhi cannot, of course, be ham-handed. But with all the subtlety it commands, it should make certain that the current President, Mr Mohammed Waheed, and his friends get the message that cocking a snook will come with a cost.
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