In matters of security and foreign policy, especially in respect of ties with India, it is the military that will continue to guide Pakistan’s destiny
Mian Nawaz Sharif, who led his PML(N) to a two-thirds victory in the May 11 elections, was elected Prime Minister by the National Assembly on Wednesday.
In his acceptance speech he emphasised the need for democracy in the country, and sought the cooperation of his political rivals in rescuing the economy from a dire situation, overcoming the crippling power situation and eradicating corruption. These are gigantic tasks and the Pakistani leader, heading the country for a record third time, spoke wisely. But the notional contest for the PM’s post offered by the PPP and Imran Khan’s PTI, the PML(N)’s chief rivals, suggests that Mr Sharif’s appeal may not be readily reciprocated. Some of the reason is rooted in the election results.
The PML(N) has won its parliamentary seats chiefly from Punjab province, the PPP from its base in Sindh and Imran Khan’s party from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the former NWFP. Evidently, the Sharif government will principally represent Punjab. This sets fault lines at the start of the new government’s term, hindering the Prime Minister at the political level. The Army may be expected to take advantage of this.
Relations with India, Pakistan’s most significant neighbour, were not touched upon in Mr Sharif’s address on Wednesday, although during the election campaign and upon securing victory Mr Sharif had sought to flag improving ties with this country. News reports had then suggested that Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani had met the incoming leader and urged caution on this front. Possibly this has had a dampening effect on Mr Sharif’s enthusiasm.
Pakistan has doubtless made history by ensuring a smooth civilian transition after a sustained five-year term under civilian rule. This has led some observers to infer that the process of reducing the Army’s influence in national affairs on an irreversible basis may possibly have been set in motion, especially when we consider that two-thirds of the country had turned up to vote in last month’s election. This appears to be a rosy reading of the situation.
The plain fact is that the Pakistan Army chose to de-emphasise its role in the last five years for tactical reasons, and not on any ideological basis. That’s too much to expect when the country’s political economy is permeated at every level with the military’s influence. In any case, there can be no question that in matters of security and foreign policy, especially in respect of ties with India, Afghanistan and the United States, it is the military that will continue to guide Pakistan’s destiny. To that extent we should keep our expectations realistic.
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